Climate change: UK expects 10 times more rain

The “never-ending” rain in the UK and Ireland last autumn and winter was found to be ten times more likely and 20% wetter due to human-induced global warming, according to a study. Over a dozen storms hit the region from October to March, marking the second-wettest such period in nearly two centuries. This deluge caused severe floods, at least 20 deaths, extensive damage to homes and infrastructure, power outages, travel disruptions, and significant losses in crops and livestock.

Without the climate crisis, the level of rain experienced would have been a once-in-50-years event. Now, it’s expected every five years due to the 1.2°C increase in global temperatures. If fossil fuel consumption isn’t drastically reduced, leading to a global temperature rise to 2°C in the next decade or two, such severe wet weather could occur every three years, the study indicated.

The researchers emphasized that efforts to protect the UK and Ireland’s populations remain inadequate, with the poor and vulnerable most affected. For instance, some flood victims couldn’t use provided dehumidifiers due to high energy costs, and others couldn’t afford to replace food lost in power outages. The study, part of the World Weather Attribution group, compared the likelihood and intensity of the wet winter in today’s warmed world to a hypothetical world without high carbon emissions. Warmer air holds more water vapor, leading to increased rainfall. Numerous attribution studies have shown global warming is already intensifying extreme weather events worldwide.

Dr. Mark McCarthy from the UK Met Office, part of the WWA team, said, “The continuous rain this autumn and winter in the UK and Ireland had significant impacts. Future increases are expected, underscoring the need for climate adaptation and resilience.” Dr. Sarah Kew from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute added, “The UK and Ireland are facing a wetter, damper future due to climate change. Without reducing emissions to net zero, the climate will keep warming, and rainfall will continue to intensify.”

The study analyzed storms Babet, Ciarán, Henk, and Isha, among the most damaging. An analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit estimated the heavy rain’s cost to UK arable farmers at about £1.2bn, with additional losses for vegetable growers. Dr. Ellie Murtagh of the British Red Cross noted, “Flooding has a devastating impact on people’s lives, with effects lasting months and years.” She highlighted that weather-related home insurance claims in the UK rose by over a third, totaling a record-breaking £573m. However, one in seven people lack insurance, often due to affordability issues.

UK ministers have faced criticism for failing to adequately plan for the impacts of global warming. In July, experts condemned the government’s latest climate adaptation plan as “very weak.” Dr. Friederike Otto of Imperial College London and WWA co-founder bluntly stated, “Climate change is already making life worse. Wetter winters are flooding farms, canceling events, overwhelming sewage systems, and increasing grocery prices. However, solutions are known: replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy, insulating homes, and restoring nature will make life better and cheaper for everyone.”