According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China is projected to contribute nearly 60% of all new global renewable energy capacity between now and 2030.
The IEA’s latest renewable energy report revealed that 60% renewable projects are set to expand at three times the rate observed in the previous six years, largely driven by the efforts of China and India. As a result, global renewable capacity is expected to surpass the targets set by governments, potentially equating to the combined power systems of China, the EU, India, and the US by 2030.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol summarized this trend, stating, “If I could sum this up in two words, they would be: China, solar.” By the end of this decade, China is anticipated to hold over half of the world’s renewable energy capacity. The country’s rapid growth in solar energy is believed to have slowed its coal power development, with new coal plant permits dropping significantly in the first half of 2024, according to Global Energy Monitor.
The IEA estimates that solar energy will contribute 80% of the new renewable power capacity added worldwide by 2030, driven by decreasing costs and favorable policies that encourage investments in solar panels for homes and businesses. Wind power, which has faced challenges from rising interest rates and supply chain issues, is also expected to double its growth rate between 2024 and 2030 compared to the previous six years. The UK, for example, aims to quadruple its offshore wind capacity by 2030, with a focus on developing floating wind turbines.
A report from Renewable UK suggests that although floating wind farms will make up a small portion of the offshore wind industry by 2030, they could contribute up to one-third of the UK’s offshore wind capacity by 2050, providing a £47 billion boost to the economy, particularly in Scottish and Welsh port communities.
Birol emphasized that the expansion of renewables is happening faster than governments can set targets. This growth is not only driven by the need to reduce emissions or enhance energy security but also because renewables are now the cheapest option for new power plants in most countries.
The IEA report shows that renewable energy is on track to grow 2.7 times by 2030, exceeding government targets by nearly 25%. However, this growth still falls short of the goal set by world leaders to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, a pledge made at the UN’s Cop28 climate talks in Dubai last year.
Birol stated that achieving this 60% goal is “entirely possible” if global governments take three critical steps: prioritizing the development of power grids to connect new projects, reducing permitting times for renewable energy projects, and increasing financial support for emerging and developing economies.
One major concern is the lack of access to reliable electricity in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite its vast solar potential, the region has a solar capacity comparable to that of Belgium. Birol noted that addressing this imbalance is crucial for global energy equity and sustainability.
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