Loss of Ukrainian grain exports will cost dearer to Africa

According to a report released on Friday by Germany’s Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), any continued stop in Ukraine’s grain exports might be devastating to African countries.

“If Ukraine ceases to be a grain provider, the war in Ukraine might considerably damage the supply of cereals used in food production in African countries, making food more expensive,” the institute stated.

“The country provides enormous amounts of grain to North African governments in particular, which other sources of supply could not possibly replace in the long run.”

Grain importers around the world have been hammered by rising costs, with wheat nearing 14-year highs as a result of Ukraine’s abrupt halting of exports and Russia’s significant drop. Grain export ports have been closed due to the war.

Russia and Ukraine export roughly 30% of the world’s wheat, as well as enormous amounts of animal feed grains and culinary oils, with shipments severely hampered by the war.

“As a result of the war, Ukraine is likely to be cut off from the global economy at first,” the institute stated. “Trade channels have been blocked, infrastructure has been damaged, and all remaining production factors are likely to be focused towards a war economy.”

“Losing Ukraine as a supplier will significantly aggravate the supply situation across the continent,” the report continued.

Tunisia might be one of the hardest hit countries, with total wheat imports falling by nearly 15%. Egypt’s imports would drop by nearly 17%, while South Africa’s would drop by 7%.

Cameroon, Algeria, Libya, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Morocco, and Mozambique would all experience significant disruptions in grain imports.

On Friday, Germany will host a conference of G7 agriculture ministers to explore the impact of the Ukraine crisis on global food security.

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