A study has found that dangerous temperatures in Europe could result in a 50% increase in deaths by the end of the century, with heat-related fatalities projected to surpass the lives saved from milder cold weather.
The researchers estimated that even under the best-case scenario for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, an additional 8,000 people would die annually due to “suboptimal temperatures.” The worst-case scenario showed a rise of 80,000 temperature-related deaths per year.
This study challenges the argument made by some that global warming could benefit society by reducing cold-related deaths. Pierre Masselot, a statistician at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and lead author of the study, emphasized that the results show a net increase in temperature-related deaths as a result of climate change.
The research builds on prior studies that examined the link between temperature and mortality in 854 cities across Europe. By combining this data with three climate scenarios, the study projected changes in population structure and temperature over the century. In all three scenarios, the scientists found that uncomfortable temperatures would cause more deaths than they do today, with the highest increase expected in southern Europe, especially around the Mediterranean, and in central Europe, including parts of Switzerland, Austria, Germany, and Poland. In contrast, cooler northern Europe is expected to see a slight decrease in deaths.
Heat and cold both pose significant health risks long before they reach extremes like heatstroke or hypothermia. Heatwaves often lead to excess deaths, particularly among the elderly and those with preexisting health conditions, while cold spells contribute to cardiovascular and respiratory problems.
Tim Osborn, a climate scientist at the University of East Anglia, stated that while the study isn’t definitive, it provides important new insights by considering people’s vulnerability to extreme temperatures by age and city.
The study, which focused on European cities, did not account for rural areas or other regions where heat poses a more pressing issue where 50% increase in deaths can be reported. The researchers estimated that between 2015 and 2099, the high heating scenario could cause an additional 2.3 million deaths in Europe.
Madeleine Thomson, a climate and health expert at the Wellcome charity, highlighted that extreme heat not only causes deaths but also contributes to a variety of serious health issues, including cardiovascular disease, miscarriages, and mental health problems.
Climate science deniers have argued that global warming could reduce mortality rates due to less cold weather. However, scientists point out that heat-related deaths will rise much faster than cold-related deaths will decrease, especially as temperatures continue to climb.
Erich Fischer, a climate scientist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, noted that comparing the net effects of climate change to the potential harms of a harmful drug is inappropriate.
The study also explored how adaptation could save lives, finding that only extreme adaptation measures could prevent the rising death toll in the hottest scenarios. However, in scenarios where carbon emissions are reduced, a 50% reduction in temperature exposure could reduce net deaths.
Víctor Resco de Dios, an environmental engineer at the University of Lleida, emphasized that adaptation measures, such as installing air conditioning or creating climate shelters, could help mitigate the effects of rising temperatures. More complex solutions, like increasing green spaces in cities, and adapting health systems, are also needed.
