Over the past decade, Pakistan’s political parties have all played a role in the slow erosion of democracy. For most of its history, Pakistan has been under military rule, with brief democratic phases emerging only when the military’s unpopularity forced it to allow temporary democratic governance. The last military ruler stepped down in 2008, and since then, Pakistan has experienced its longest period of civilian leadership. However, instead of progressing, the country has regressed; last year, it was downgraded from a “hybrid” to an “authoritarian” regime. The electoral system and democratic process have lost legitimacy—not only among Pakistanis but also on the global stage.
This decline didn’t happen overnight. In *The Sun Also Rises*, a character famously explains bankruptcy occurring “gradually, then suddenly.” Over the past decade, Pakistan’s political parties have all played a role in the slow erosion of democracy. Driven by a thirst for power, they collaborated with the military to manipulate elections and target political rivals. In doing so, they weakened the rule of law, democratic principles, and the constitution.
The last two elections were marked by significant irregularities, intensifying political conflicts instead of resolving them. The 2018 election brought Imran Khan to power amid controversy, while the 2024 election blocked him from power. In 2018, Khan had the military’s support, but by 2024, it had become his adversary. Now, he finds himself in the same position his rivals were in just a few years ago—behind bars, awaiting a shift in fortune. History suggests that the political tide will eventually turn in his favor, as it did for his opponents. However, the larger issue remains why the military continues to decide who governs Pakistan. For now, political leaders appear uninterested in addressing this question, reducing politics to a “pick me” competition.
Consequently, troubling trends are emerging in the country. The government is suppressing dissent, attempting to dismantle Khan’s party, and recently banning the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement, a peaceful group advocating for Pashtun rights. Meanwhile, the administration has been slow to respond to recent deaths in police custody. Last month, two individuals were killed while in custody on accusations of blasphemy, but there has been little discussion about the potential role of increasing religious radicalization.
As politics shift from prioritizing citizens’ welfare to an elite power struggle, ordinary people suffer the most. This cycle of political instability has hurt Pakistan’s economy, leading to capital flight, while 12.5 million more people have fallen into poverty. The number of out-of-school children has surged to 25.3 million, or over a third of children aged five to 16. Government spending on education and health remains critically low.
Recently, Pakistan entered its 25th IMF bailout program, which prevented a sovereign debt default but came with unpopular reforms, such as privatizing loss-making state enterprises and raising taxes. Previous governments had avoided these reforms due to fear of public backlash. Economic stability is contingent on political stability, yet instead of easing tensions, the government has exacerbated them. Last week, it hurriedly passed a controversial amendment, increasing control over judicial appointments in the supreme and high courts, without debate. This drew harsh criticism domestically and internationally, with the International Commission of Jurists and the UN’s human rights chief condemning it as an attack on judicial independence.
On the international stage, the situation is equally grim. Since the U.S. withdrawal and the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul, thousands of Pakistani civilians and security personnel have died in terrorist attacks by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a radical Taliban offshoot. Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan are deteriorating and risk collapsing entirely. For years, Pakistan’s security establishment ignored warnings against aligning with the Taliban, allowing them to establish bases in tribal areas, assuming the Taliban would dominate Afghanistan once the U.S. withdrew. This was a grave miscalculation. Rather than being an ally, the Taliban seek to expand their Islamic emirate, while the TTP aims to overthrow the Pakistani government and constitution.
Pakistan now faces a critical juncture. The government could choose to align with the people’s will, reflected through free and fair elections, or risk crossing the fine line between gradual decline and sudden collapse of democracy. The country’s future teeters on a knife-edge, between democracy and disintegration.
