US: What Trump’s second term means for trade?

Donald Trump’s potential second term as U.S. president could bring significant changes to trade policy, climate initiatives, immigration, taxes, and foreign relations. While some proposals would need congressional approval, here’s a summary of key policies he has pledged to pursue:

Trade Policy: Increased Tariffs

  • Across-the-Board Tariff: Trump has proposed a 10% tariff on all imports, aiming to eliminate the trade deficit. Critics warn this could raise consumer prices and disrupt the global economy.
  • Targeted Tariffs: He plans to impose steep tariffs, including 200% on certain imported cars, and specifically on goods from Mexico, China, and the EU.
  • Phasing Out Chinese Imports: Over four years, he aims to reduce reliance on Chinese goods like electronics, steel, and pharmaceuticals and block Chinese ownership of critical U.S. assets.
  • Revenue Generator: Trump views tariffs as a key tool to boost government revenue.

Immigration: Mass Deportations

  • Restrictive Policies: Trump promises to reintroduce first-term immigration measures, limit asylum access, and undertake an unprecedented deportation campaign.
  • Border Enforcement: Plans include using the National Guard and federal troops to control illegal border crossings, possibly setting up internment camps.
  • 14th Amendment Challenge: He proposes ending automatic citizenship for children of immigrants, which would face constitutional scrutiny.
  • Protected Status Removal: He has suggested revoking protections for groups like Haitians and Venezuelans.
  • Travel Ban Revival: Trump intends to reinstate the controversial travel ban on citizens from predominantly Muslim countries.

Energy: Fossil Fuel Expansion

  • Boosting Oil and Gas: Trump plans to ease drilling regulations, expand pipelines, and reauthorize drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
  • Paris Agreement Withdrawal: He pledges to exit the global climate pact again and roll back Biden-era emissions policies, particularly for electric vehicles.
  • Energy Council: A proposed council, led by his Interior Secretary pick, Doug Burgum, would focus on boosting production.
  • Energy and AI: Trump links energy production to competitiveness in artificial intelligence development.

Tax Policy: Cuts and Relief

  • Corporate Tax Reduction: Plans to lower the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% for U.S.-based manufacturing companies.
  • Relief for Service Workers: Proposes ending taxes on tips and overtime wages.
  • Broad Tax Cuts: He aims to expand the 2017 tax cuts and explore new individual and corporate tax reductions.
  • No Social Security Cuts: Trump pledges not to reduce benefits or tax them.
  • Federal Reserve Pressure: Advocates for lower interest rates, though he won’t mandate action.

Climate and Global Relations

  • Ukraine Policy: Trump has been vague about his stance on supporting Ukraine amid its conflict with Russia, raising questions about future aid.
  • Global Competitiveness: Many of his proposed changes aim to make the U.S. more competitive on the global stage, particularly in energy and manufacturing.

While these policies reflect Trump’s campaign promises, many would face legal, legislative, and public resistance, potentially limiting their implementation.

 

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