Western Australia is expected to produce 420,000 metric tons more wheat this year than estimated a month ago, according to the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA). This adjustment aligns with expectations that Australia’s national crop may surpass initial pre-harvest projections.
Analysts have already increased the nationwide production estimate by approximately 1 million tons after early harvests in New South Wales revealed exceptionally high yields. Similarly, early results in Western Australia indicate strong yields across all crops, GIWA noted.
New South Wales and Western Australia are Australia’s two largest cropping regions. As the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter, Australia is experiencing a robust supply, which has driven Chicago benchmark wheat futures to near four-year lows. However, traders anticipate market conditions to tighten in the coming months.
GIWA’s latest report projects Western Australia’s wheat harvest at 10.33 million tons, alongside 4.52 million tons of barley and 2.59 million tons of canola. These figures represent an increase from last month’s predictions of 9.91 million tons of wheat, 4.32 million tons of barley, and 2.36 million tons of canola.
“Grain yields have exceeded expectations for all crops in most areas,” GIWA stated. Despite below-average rainfall in many regions, the total grain and oilseed output in Western Australia is expected to be the third-largest on record. The association highlighted the remarkable nature of this outcome, given the challenging start to the season.
However, recent widespread rainfall has slowed harvesting and affected grain quality in some areas. For the 2024/25 season, the Australian government estimates a wheat production of 31.8 million tons—approximately 20% higher than the 2023/24 harvest and the 10-year average. The total could have been even greater if not for dry conditions impacting yields in South Australia and Victoria.
