The share of the world affected by conflict has surged by 65% in the past three years, an area nearly double the size of India, according to a new report.
Regions like Ukraine, Myanmar, the Middle East, and Africa’s Sahel “conflict corridor” have experienced escalating wars and unrest since 2021, as highlighted in the latest Conflict Intensity Index (CII) from risk analysts Verisk Maplecroft. While the COVID-19 pandemic briefly reduced global conflict levels, experts note a decade-long upward trend in violence, with many ongoing crises remaining unresolved.
Hugo Brennan, research director at Verisk Maplecroft, pointed out the wide-reaching consequences of recent conflicts, including disruptions to businesses, economic growth, and food security. For instance, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine jeopardized grain exports critical to the Middle East and Africa, while Houthi rebel attacks on Red Sea shipping further destabilized supply chains.
“Conflict risks have been rising, and global businesses must factor this in,” Brennan said. “Even if a factory in Sudan seems irrelevant, supply chain disruptions from distant conflicts can ripple across industries.”
The report reveals that 6.15 million square kilometers (2.4 million square miles), or 4.6% of the Earth’s landmass, are now conflict zones—up from 2.8% in 2021. Conflict-related deaths have also increased by 29%. Since 2021, 27 countries, including Ecuador, India, and Thailand, have seen a significant rise in risk.
The Sahel and Horn of Africa, spanning from Mali to Somalia, are identified as a key conflict zone, with violence doubling in three years. Burkina Faso is heavily affected, with 86% of its territory embroiled in conflict, while Sudan and Ethiopia face significant violence.
Angela Rosales, CEO of SOS Children’s Villages International, noted that 470 million children globally are affected by wars in places like Ukraine, Sudan, Gaza, and Lebanon. Beyond physical harm, children risk losing their families, facing exploitation, or falling victim to trafficking and abuse.
Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, president of civilian harm monitor Acled, emphasized the persistence of older conflicts alongside emerging ones. Violent incidents have risen by 27% since the Ukraine war, and in nations like Myanmar, with numerous smaller armed groups, achieving lasting peace is challenging.
“These smaller conflicts adapt to their political environment, making them particularly difficult to resolve,” she explained, expressing concern over the rising violence, fueled by unchecked actions like coups, assassinations, and militia power grabs.
Iain Overton, executive director of Action on Armed Violence, observed an upward trend in violence compared to 2010, with notable peaks during the mid-2010s in Syria and Iraq. While non-state armed groups previously relied on small arms and improvised explosives, recent years have seen a rise in state-on-state conflicts.
“The 2020s are shaping up to be the decade of airstrikes and especially drone warfare,” Overton concluded.
