Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has survived his second parliamentary confidence vote in under a week, as opposition parties have decided to temporarily keep his minority Liberal government in power. Lawmakers in the House of Commons voted 207-121 against a Conservative Party motion to oust Trudeau, who is experiencing growing voter discontent after nearly nine years in office.
This follows another Conservative motion last Thursday, which Trudeau also easily overcame. The Conservatives, currently enjoying a strong lead in the polls ahead of a potential election by October 2025, argue that Canadians cannot bear the burden of the proposed federal carbon tax hike. They have accused Trudeau of mismanaging the economy, leading to high prices and increased crime rates.
To force an election, the Conservatives need the support of every opposition party. However, the separatist Bloc Québécois, which seeks independence for Quebec, has been supporting Trudeau. The Bloc previously stated it would back Trudeau at least until the end of the month in exchange for increased pensions for seniors.
Even if the Bloc Québécois withdraws its support, Trudeau’s government could still be propped up by the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP). A Nanos poll from September 27 showed the Conservatives with 42% public support, far ahead of the NDP at 22% and the Liberals at 21%. The NDP may decide to keep Trudeau in office in hopes of improving their own position before an election, given the Conservatives’ current commanding lead.
Given the current political landscape, the New Democratic Party (NDP) has emerged as a potential kingmaker in maintaining Trudeau’s position. With the Conservatives holding a significant advantage in public support, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh might prefer to delay an election rather than risk an overwhelming Conservative victory. Supporting the Liberals allows the NDP to maintain influence over policies and advocate for their priorities, such as affordable housing and healthcare reforms.
However, this alliance could prove tricky for Trudeau. With rising public dissatisfaction over issues like inflation, the cost of living, and perceptions of government ineffectiveness, the Liberals’ popularity has waned. Trudeau is now navigating a challenging political environment, where the opposition’s momentum and voter fatigue with nearly a decade of Liberal governance are major concerns.
The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, have capitalized on these discontentments, promoting their stance against Trudeau’s carbon tax plan, which they argue disproportionately affects Canadians struggling with high costs. The party has positioned itself as the solution to rising crime rates and economic instability, further fueling their lead in the polls.
Despite these pressures, Trudeau’s government remains intact—at least for now. Analysts speculate that as long as Trudeau can rely on the Bloc Québécois and the NDP, he can delay any election-triggering event. This allows him time to potentially rebuild public confidence and address key issues. However, should the Bloc or the NDP shift their support, Trudeau’s minority government could quickly become vulnerable to another confidence motion, risking a snap election.
With the next mandatory federal election not required until October 2025, Trudeau has a limited window to strengthen his position. The coming months will likely see the Liberals intensifying their focus on policy initiatives aimed at addressing voter concerns while navigating the delicate balance of securing support from both the Bloc and the NDP.
In the meantime, the Conservatives are expected to keep pushing for parliamentary votes to test Trudeau’s hold on power. As opposition parties strategize around their own political goals, Trudeau’s ability to govern effectively and win back public support will be crucial to the survival of his administration.
