The area of land experiencing severe drought has tripled since the 1980s, according to a recent climate change report. Last year, 48% of Earth’s land had at least one month of extreme drought, a rise from an average of 15% in the 1980s, says the media report. In 2023, nearly 30% of the world faced extreme drought for three months or more, compared to only 5% in the 1980s.
This study highlights how rapidly droughts are worsening. Extreme drought conditions occur after six months of low rainfall or high evaporation, or both, posing risks to water, sanitation, food, health, and even the economy. While factors like weather events and land use influence droughts, climate change is shifting global rainfall patterns, making some areas more drought-prone.
Regions like South America, the Middle East, and the Horn of Africa have been hit hardest by increased drought. In the Amazon, drought threatens to disrupt rain cycles, creating a feedback loop that worsens conditions. Meanwhile, as some areas dry out, extreme rainfall has surged. In the past decade, 61% of the world saw increased intense rainfall compared to the baseline from 1961-1990.
The link between droughts, floods, and warming temperatures is complex. Hot weather intensifies soil evaporation, making dry periods even more extreme. Climate change also affects rainfall patterns; warming oceans increase atmospheric moisture, which can lead to heavier rainfall over land.
The Lancet Countdown report shows climate change’s severe impact on health. Droughts left 151 million more people vulnerable to food insecurity last year than in the 1990s, leading to malnutrition. Heat-related deaths in seniors rose by 167% from the 1990s. Rising temperatures and more rainfall have also expanded mosquito-borne diseases like dengue fever, malaria, and West Nile virus to new areas. Dust storms are also worsening air quality for millions.
“The climate is changing fast,” says Marina Romanello, executive director of the Lancet Countdown. “We are facing conditions we didn’t design our systems for.”
For their series, media visited extremely hot regions, finding that drought and rainfall extremes were further straining water supplies. In northeast Syria and Iraq, extreme drought since 2020 has caused water shortages, particularly in Hasakah. “Twenty years ago, the Khabor River flowed, but now it’s been dry for years,” says Osman Gaddo from Hasakah’s Water Board. With drying wells and scarce fuel, residents resort to digging their own, risking exposure to polluted water.
In South Sudan, 77% of the country faced at least one month of drought last year, with half experiencing extreme drought for six months. Concurrent flooding affected over 700,000 people, severely impacting communities. Nyakuma, a village elder, says, “Things are getting worse.” Having lost their livestock, her family now survives on government aid and foraged food.
Drought can harden soil, preventing rain absorption and causing flash floods. Romanello adds, “Plants can somewhat adapt to drought, but flooding severely disrupts agriculture, threatening food security.”
To limit further warming, emissions reductions are essential. 2023 has been the hottest year on record. Romanello warns, “If global temperatures continue to rise, the situation will deteriorate, with impacts beyond our ability to adapt.”
