Two million people in Myanmar’s Rakhine state may face severe starvation within months as intense conflict and trade blockades have triggered a “total economic collapse” and raised the imminent threat of famine, according to a senior UN official.
Rakhine state, situated on Myanmar’s western border with Bangladesh, is nearing a humanitarian disaster, with plummeting incomes, declining rice production, and military-imposed trade restrictions causing acute food shortages and hyperinflation. Upcoming research from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) accuses the military of enforcing “collective punishment” on civilians.
Some people have resorted to eating rice bran, normally animal feed, to stave off hunger. Kanni Wignaraja, UN assistant secretary-general and UNDP regional director, described the situation as unprecedented in Myanmar, saying, “We’ve not seen this level of total economic collapse.”
Wignaraja added, “If this continues into 2025, close to 2 million people could reach starvation levels.” Many households, she noted, are already reducing meals to once a day or less, while borrowing has increased, even though lenders have limited resources.
UNDP’s data shows that over half of Rakhine’s households—around 1.4 million people—have seen their monthly income fall from 66,600 kyat ($31.70) to about 46,620 kyat ($22.21) since the fighting intensified last year. This barely covers the cost of rice, excluding other essential needs like rent, transport, and healthcare.
Since the military took control in February 2021, Myanmar has been in a deepening conflict and economic crisis. The coup sparked widespread resistance, with civilians taking up arms for democracy, and established ethnic groups, seeking greater autonomy, joining the fight against the junta.
Rakhine’s conflict reignited late last year, with the military clashing intensely with the Arakan Army, an ethnic Rakhine group aiming for autonomy. The UNDP report claims military restrictions aim to isolate Rakhine and punish its already vulnerable population.
Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing denies these claims, accusing the Arakan Army of “damaging residents’ socio-economic conditions, education, and health.” The interior ministry has been contacted for additional comments.
Conditions are especially dire for Rakhine’s 511,000 displaced people, including Rohingya, who depend on aid. Military-imposed bureaucratic barriers severely limit access for aid organizations, hindering relief efforts.
Basic healthcare services, like immunizations, have ceased, and HIV patients lack access to antiretroviral treatment. In July, over three dozen children reportedly died during a diarrhoea outbreak, though the true toll may be higher. Essential medicines, like paracetamol, are scarce and costly, with a 12-capsule blister pack selling for 6,000 to 7,000 kyat ($2.86-3.33).
The ongoing conflict has crippled the construction sector, a vital job provider, displacing hundreds of thousands of residents. At the same time, food prices, particularly for rice and cooking oil, have surged nearly tenfold in the hardest-hit areas.
UNDP projects that only 97,000 tons of rice will be produced this year, meeting just 20% of the population’s needs—a significant drop from last year’s 282,000 tons, which covered only 60% of the demand.
The trade routes bringing supplies into Rakhine have diminished from 8-10 to just two since October 2023. Wignaraja attributes this decline to military restrictions, intense conflict, declining demand as incomes vanish, and the rise of illegal trade.
To prevent a worsening starvation catastrophe, UNDP has called for lifting all trade restrictions to allow the free flow of goods into Rakhine, including access through Myanmar’s borders with India and Bangladesh. The UNDP report also calls for unimpeded aid access and urgent funding to expand relief operations.
However, Wignaraja warned that current relief measures merely “stave off hunger for a day.” She stressed that the crisis is “more than a famine—it’s a political catastrophe and systemic collapse,” requiring a global, politically brokered solution. She urged regional players, particularly ASEAN, and the UN to lead this effort.
The number of Rohingya risking dangerous boat journeys to Indonesia has surged, with 395 refugees, including 173 children, arriving by sea in October—an increase from 49 in the same month last year, as per UN data shared by Save the Children.
Wignaraja noted the dire starvation situation facing Rohingya in Rakhine, saying their suffering is “ten times or more” that of the general population. “When people are desperate, they try everything,” she added. “When parents put their children on a boat, it means they have lost all hope.”
