Australia’s long-standing defence partnership and submarine plan with the United States has come under unexpected strain this week, following the Trump administration’s decision to review the landmark AUKUS agreement. The trilateral pact, signed in 2021 between the US, UK, and Australia, aims to supply Australia with advanced nuclear-powered submarines—a strategic deal seen as vital to maintaining stability in the Asia-Pacific region. But under President Donald Trump’s renewed “America First” doctrine, the US has signaled a potential shift in priorities, prompting concern in Canberra about the future of this crucial alliance.
The White House confirmed on Thursday that it is reassessing the AUKUS deal to ensure it aligns with Trump’s domestic and strategic interests. Elbridge Colby, a former Pentagon official and critic of AUKUS, is heading the review, which is framed around ensuring US allies contribute more to collective defence and that America’s own military supply needs are prioritized. The move has raised fresh doubts about Washington’s commitment to Australia’s security, especially as global tensions escalate and alliances are increasingly tested.
Sam Roggeveen of Australia’s Lowy Institute captured the prevailing mood, stating, “I don’t think any Australian should feel that our ally is fully committed to our security at this moment.” His concerns are echoed across Australia’s defence and political circles, where the possibility of being left without American support looms large.
Valued at over A$368 billion, the AUKUS deal is a significant upgrade to Australia’s naval capabilities, allowing for longer-range missions and deeper strategic deterrence. The submarine, jointly developed by the three nations, are expected to be a leap ahead of Australia’s current diesel-powered fleet. For decades, the US and UK have seen arming Australia as essential for maintaining regional balance, especially in the face of a rising China.
Yet, under Trump’s more insular approach to foreign policy, the pact’s benefits to the US are under scrutiny. Colby has previously questioned why the US should “give away this crown jewel asset when we most need it,” referring to the prized nuclear submarine technology. The US defence sector is also reportedly struggling to meet domestic demand for nuclear submarines, further complicating commitments to allies.
Despite the unsettling review, Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles has tried to downplay the situation, describing the reassessment as routine under a new administration. “I’m very confident this is going to happen,” he said during a televised interview. However, unease in Canberra is palpable, as voices across the political spectrum weigh in.
Former prime ministers have offered divergent views. Scott Morrison, who originally brokered the AUKUS pact, called for calm and warned against overreacting. In contrast, Malcolm Turnbull urged Australia to “wake up” and prepare for the US potentially walking away, describing the pact as a “bad deal” from the start. Paul Keating went further, suggesting that US hesitation might ultimately benefit Australia by forcing it to rethink its reliance on Washington.
Amid the tension, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has remained publicly silent, likely awaiting a potential meeting with Trump at the upcoming G7 summit in Canada. His government has also been stung by Trump-era trade decisions, including the imposition of new tariffs on Australian goods—moves that have chipped away at trust.
The uncertainty around AUKUS has reignited broader debates about Australia’s defence independence. The Greens party has called for a national review of the agreement, insisting that the country needs a sovereign foreign policy not dictated by shifting US interests.
Still, experts argue that a full US withdrawal remains unlikely. The pact offers mutual benefits, including enhanced defence interoperability and thousands of American jobs linked to submarine production. With final deliveries not expected for nearly a decade, there is time to navigate the challenges.
Yet, the current review has exposed vulnerabilities in Australia’s strategic planning, especially if interim Virginia-class submarines from the US are no longer part of the deal. Such an outcome could leave Australia reliant on aging naval assets for the next 20 years—a prospect few are prepared to entertain.
Ultimately, while the AUKUS pact may survive the Trump administration’s scrutiny, the relationship has undeniably been shaken. Australia must now contend with the unsettling reality that its most trusted ally may not be as dependable as once believed.
