Tariffs set to reshape consumer prices in US as trade disputes escalate

In a bold move earlier this year, US President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs on imported goods, triggering global trade disputes as countries scrambled to negotiate or brace for the financial blow. While some major trading partners—such as the European Union, the UK, and Japan—have managed to scale back the initially proposed tariff hikes, others, including Canada and several Asian economies, now face sharply elevated import taxes.

Effective 1 August, tariffs on Canadian goods rose to 35%, after talks between Washington and Ottawa failed to yield a breakthrough. Trump has justified the increased levies as a way to boost domestic manufacturing and generate billions in federal revenue. However, critics warn the measures are already driving up consumer prices in the US—and the full brunt of inflation is yet to come.

Several consumer sectors are expected to bear the heaviest burden of trade disputes. Apparel, in particular, may see significant price hikes. The majority of clothing and footwear sold in the US is manufactured overseas, especially in Vietnam, China, and Bangladesh. While Trump scaled back his initial threats of extreme tariffs, a minimum 30% duty remains on Chinese goods, and new taxes of around 19-20% have now taken effect on items from Vietnam, Indonesia, and Bangladesh. Retail giants like Walmart and Target, along with brands such as Nike and Levi Strauss, have indicated they will pass the extra costs onto shoppers. The Budget Lab at Yale projects a 37% short-term rise in clothing prices, with a 0.4% spike already recorded between May and June.

Food and beverage costs are also set to increase due to trade disputes. Coffee, largely imported, now faces steep tariffs—50% on Brazilian coffee and 20% on Vietnamese beans. European olive oil and produce like Italian and Greek varieties are hit with 15% levies. While some Mexican agricultural goods have been granted exemptions, items like tomatoes and avocados are still affected. The Yale Budget Lab predicts a 3.4% surge in overall food prices, with fresh produce expected to be particularly impacted.

Imported alcohol could also become pricier. Europe exports nearly €9 billion worth of alcoholic beverages to the US annually. Though the EU and US have reached a partial tariff agreement, it’s unclear whether alcohol is included in the exemptions. Meanwhile, Mexican beers like Modelo and Corona are expected to become costlier due to aluminium tariffs, affecting canned beverages—which make up over 64% of US beer consumption.

The automobile sector is experiencing its own shake-up. Trump introduced a 25% import tariff on passenger vehicles and parts in March, later reducing it to 15% for cars from the EU and Japan, and 10% for the UK. While car prices haven’t yet surged, analysts suggest companies are currently absorbing the costs, a trend that may not be sustainable. Ironically, many vehicles sold by American companies are assembled in Canada or Mexico, making them subject to tariffs and potentially less competitive than some foreign alternatives.

Construction and housing may also take a hit. New tariffs on steel, aluminium, and a pending 50% levy on copper are expected to drive up material costs. The National Association of Home Builders has warned that these duties could significantly raise the cost of new homes, particularly in a country where wood remains the dominant building material. Canada, which supplies the US with 69% of its lumber and significant portions of iron, steel, and copper, now faces 35% tariffs, straining one of America’s most crucial import relationships.

Energy prices may not be immune either. While oil and gas imports are generally exempt from tariffs, a 10% duty now applies to energy imports from Canada, which supplies 61% of America’s foreign crude. This is particularly concerning given that many US refineries are designed to process the heavier crude found in Canada. Any disruption in supply could drive up gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices.

Even as the EU moves to buy more US liquefied natural gas and oil to replace Russian supplies, American consumers are unlikely to see relief. As the ripple effects of these tariffs intensify, analysts warn that the true cost of Trump’s aggressive trade agenda may soon be felt in everyday household budgets.

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