Canada is facing a potential surge in undocumented immigrants, with estimates suggesting that as many as 1 million Indian nationals could be living in the country without legal status by the middle of 2026, according to immigration experts citing official data. This dramatic projection comes as a result of a record number of temporary work permits expiring amid tightening immigration policies, creating a significant challenge for Canadian authorities and immigrant communities alike.
Data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) shows that approximately 1,053,000 work permits had expired by the end of 2025, and another 927,000 were slated to lapse throughout 2026, leaving hundreds of thousands of foreign workers at risk of falling out of legal status if they are unable to secure a new visa or transition to permanent residency. This situation has emerged against the backdrop of recent policy shifts that seek to curb temporary immigration categories, including those covering international students and temporary workers, while addressing rising asylum claims and systemic backlogs.
Mississauga-based immigration consultant Kanwar Seirah, whose analysis draws from IRCC figures, cautioned that the growing number of people falling out of status could overwhelm Canada’s immigration framework. “It’s going to get very chaotic,” he told the Hindustan Times, warning that Canada has never before experienced such high levels of permit expirations occurring simultaneously. Seirah noted that the first quarter of 2026 alone is projected to see nearly 315,000 expiries, up from 291,000 in the final quarter of 2025, creating what he describes as a “bottleneck” in the system.
Seirah also suggested that the estimate of 1 million undocumented Indian immigrants is likely conservative. Taking into account expiring study permits and a high volume of denied asylum claims, he believes that there could be at least 2 million undocumented residents in Canada by the middle of 2026, with Indians making up a significant portion due to their predominant presence in temporary visas issued over recent years.
The surge has already had noticeable effects in some communities, particularly in parts of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) such as Brampton and Caledon, where reports of informal encampments have emerged. Journalists and local observers have documented makeshift tent settlements where out-of-status immigrants are reportedly working for cash under precarious conditions. There are also concerns about exploitative practices by unscrupulous operators, including arrangements marketed as marriages of convenience.
Community and worker advocacy groups are mobilizing in response to the unfolding situation. Naujawan Support Network, an activist organisation based in Toronto that focuses on immigrant worker rights, has signaled plans for protests in January to draw attention to the growing crisis of expiring permits and limited legal avenues for status regularisation. Bikramjit Singh, an activist with the group, said they are working to “build momentum” for collective action and highlighted their campaign slogan: “Good enough to work, good enough to stay,” underscoring the plight of immigrants whose contributions to the Canadian economy and society are at odds with a lack of secure legal pathways to remain in the country.
As Canada grapples with these complex dynamics, the unfolding trend raises pressing questions about the future of the country’s immigration policies, integration mechanisms and the wellbeing of the immigrant communities at the heart of this emerging challenge.
