China’s population continued its historic decline in 2025, falling for the fourth consecutive year and underscoring the deepening demographic challenges facing the world’s second-largest economy. Official data released this week show that the total population dropped by around 3.39 million to roughly 1.405 billion, extending a downward trend that began in 2022 and marking one of the steepest annual declines in decades. Experts and analysts warn that the sustained fall in both births and overall population could have profound implications for China’s economic growth, labour force, social welfare systems and long-term development prospects.
The number of new births in China plunged sharply in 2025, reaching only 7.92 million, down 17% from 9.54 million the previous year — the lowest figure recorded since statisticians began keeping comprehensive records in 1949. This translated into a birth rate of 5.63 births per 1,000 people, an unprecedented low in the nation’s modern history. Meanwhile, deaths continued to outnumber births, with approximately 11.31 million deaths reported last year, contributing to the overall population decline.
Demographers and policymakers point to a complex set of factors behind China’s demographic collapse. Although the government abolished its decades-long one-child policy in 2015 and later relaxed family size limits — first to two children and then to three — these reforms have failed to reverse the downward trajectory of births. Many young couples cite the high cost of living, expensive housing, intense work pressures and the financial burdens associated with raising children as key deterrents to starting or expanding families. Marriage rates have also fallen sharply, with recent data showing a significant decrease in couples tying the knot, which in turn affects birth rates since marriage remains closely linked to childbearing in Chinese society.
The demographic slowdown comes as China’s population ages rapidly. People aged 60 and above now account for an estimated 23% of the total population, a proportion expected to rise further in the coming decade. Analysts warn that an ageing society will place increasing pressure on pension systems, healthcare services and public finances, while a shrinking workforce could constrain economic productivity and growth. The country’s labour force, which has been shrinking for years, may not be large enough to support both robust economic expansion and the needs of an ageing population.
In response to the ongoing decline, Beijing has rolled out a range of pro-natalist policies designed to encourage families to have more children. These include financial incentives, childcare subsidies, extended maternity and paternity leave, easier marriage registration, and proposals to fully reimburse pregnancy-related medical costs — including assisted reproduction treatments. Some policy measures, such as reinstating a value-added tax on contraceptives like condoms, are part of broader efforts to influence fertility behaviour. However, experts have been sceptical about the effectiveness of these incentives, describing them as insufficient to overcome deep-rooted social, economic and cultural barriers to higher fertility.
China’s demographic downturn carries implications beyond its borders. As the country grapples with structural population challenges, global markets and multinational corporations that rely on China’s manufacturing base and consumer market may also feel the effects of slower growth and reduced labour supply. Some projections suggest that without substantial changes to fertility patterns, migration policies or other structural reforms, China’s population could shrink significantly in the coming decades.
The latest population figures highlight the urgency of China’s demographic dilemma: after years of government efforts to stimulate births and support families, birth rates continue to fall, and the population continues to contract. With economic pressures, social expectations and personal preferences all shaping decisions about marriage and family, reversing this trend remains one of China’s most formidable policy challenges.
