Large parts of the United Kingdom, stretching from Cornwall to County Down, have endured their wettest January on record, with relentless downpours continuing well into February and triggering widespread flooding. Communities across the country are grappling with saturated ground, overflowing rivers and mounting damage as experts warn that such extreme winters are becoming far more common due to climate change.
Meteorologists have attributed the persistent rainfall to a blocked weather pattern, caused by a high-pressure system over Scandinavia that has prevented storm systems from moving away from the UK. As a result, successive bands of rain have repeatedly swept across the country, leaving soils heavily waterlogged and rivers struggling to cope.
According to the Met Office, winters as wet as 2023/24 were once considered rare events, typically occurring once every 80 years. However, at current levels of global warming, they are now expected roughly once every 20 years. With further temperature increases projected, these extreme wet winters could become even more frequent in the decades ahead.
The Environment Agency reported that more than 100 locations across the UK were under flood warnings earlier this week, while over 300 homes have already been flooded. The pattern of heavy winter rainfall has become increasingly familiar. Six of the ten wettest winters recorded in nearly 250 years have occurred during this century, reinforcing scientific predictions that the UK is experiencing a long-term shift toward wetter winters.
Scientists link the trend to rising global temperatures driven by greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels such as coal and oil. For every 1C increase in global temperature, the atmosphere can hold approximately 7% more moisture, increasing the likelihood of heavier rainfall events. Sea levels around the UK have also risen by around 20 centimetres since 1901 due to warming oceans and melting glaciers, heightening the risk of coastal flooding during storms and tidal surges.
Currently, the UK experiences about seven days each year where rainfall exceeds 80mm in a single day, a threshold considered a heavy rainfall event. If global temperatures surpass 2C above pre-industrial levels, that figure could rise to nine days annually. The United Nations projects that, even with existing emissions reduction policies, global temperatures could climb by at least 2.5C by the end of the century.
Experts also warn that rainfall is increasingly arriving in clusters. Professor Lizzie Kendon, head of climate projections at the Met Office, explained that successive rainfall events lead to saturated soils, which significantly heighten flood risk. When the ground can no longer absorb water, rivers and drainage systems quickly become overwhelmed.
The consequences extend beyond flooded homes. Transport networks are under growing strain, with one-third of the UK’s railway lines currently at risk of flooding, leading to service disruptions and costly infrastructure damage. Government projections indicate that within 25 years, more than half of the rail network could face similar risks.
Housing is another major concern. The Environment Agency estimates that by 2050, one in four properties in England could be at risk of flooding, particularly in the East Midlands, Yorkshire and The Humber, and south-east England. The risk could increase further if new homes continue to be built on floodplains, with more than 10% of new housing developments in some areas located in flood-prone zones.
Farmers are among the hardest hit. The wet winter of 2024, the second wettest on record, resulted in an estimated £1 billion in agricultural losses. Somerset farmer James Winslade said more than 90% of his land is currently submerged, leaving him days away from losing crops to rot. He described operating on a “knife edge,” noting that crop insurance and compensation options are limited. As a third-generation farmer, he said neither his father nor grandfather witnessed flooding at such frequency or intensity.
Although the UK maintains an extensive network of flood defences, responsibility for their upkeep is divided among various organisations, including the Environment Agency, water companies and landowners. Around half of the country’s 100,000 flood defences are managed by the Environment Agency, with 9% currently below their target condition. Defences maintained by other bodies are reportedly even more likely to fall short of required standards.
An Environment Agency spokesperson acknowledged that climate change is contributing to more frequent flooding and extreme weather events. While preventing all flooding is impossible, the agency said the government has committed £10.5 billion to protect 900,000 additional properties by 2036 as part of its flood defence programme.
