A decade after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, Brexit continues to cast a long shadow over Scotland’s political landscape, fundamentally altering debates around identity, governance and independence. While the 2016 referendum was expected to significantly boost support for Scottish independence, political observers say its impact has been more complex than initially anticipated.
Scotland voted decisively to remain in the European Union, with nearly two-thirds of voters backing continued membership. However, the UK-wide vote in favour of Brexit meant Scotland was taken out of the bloc against the wishes of a majority of its electorate. Political leaders and analysts argue that this perceived democratic deficit became a powerful argument for supporters of Scottish independence.
Former Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale described Brexit as a watershed moment that changed the political conversation in Scotland. According to her, the decision reinforced a sense among many Scots that major constitutional decisions affecting the nation could be imposed despite clear opposition from Scottish voters. The UK government’s pursuit of a hard Brexit further intensified those concerns and prompted many previously undecided voters to reconsider their stance on independence.
Despite these expectations, Brexit did not immediately translate into a sustained majority for independence. Initial attempts by the Scottish National Party (SNP), led by then First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, to capitalise on pro-EU sentiment yielded mixed electoral results. In the years following the referendum, the SNP faced setbacks and struggled to convert Brexit-related frustrations into overwhelming support for another independence referendum.
The debate regained momentum during the premiership of Boris Johnson, when opposition to his handling of Brexit negotiations and the Covid-19 pandemic contributed to a rise in support for independence. Polling during this period showed support for leaving the UK reaching record highs, with some surveys placing it close to 60%. However, that surge later subsided as economic challenges and domestic policy concerns came to dominate public discourse.
Today, Brexit’s legacy is increasingly viewed through an economic lens. Researchers and analysts have linked the UK’s departure from the EU to reduced trade, rising costs and slower economic growth. Scotland, in particular, has faced economic consequences that many believe have affected public services and living standards. Concerns about healthcare, inflation and the cost-of-living crisis now rank higher among voters than constitutional questions. Studies have estimated significant losses to Scotland’s economy, while broader UK research points to reduced exports and continuing trade barriers with Europe.
Recent political developments suggest that while Brexit remains a key factor in Scottish politics, it is no longer the sole driver of public opinion. SNP leader John Swinney attempted to place independence and eventual re-entry into the EU at the centre of his party’s campaign, but the strategy failed to deliver a decisive electoral breakthrough. The rise of Reform UK and growing voter dissatisfaction with traditional political parties have added new complexities to Scotland’s political landscape.
Ten years after the referendum, Brexit continues to shape Scotland’s political identity and constitutional debate. Yet rather than producing a straightforward path to independence, it has created a more fragmented political environment where economic anxieties, trust in institutions and broader questions of governance increasingly compete with the independence issue for voters’ attention.
