A widening trade dispute between the United States and Canada could soon make an everyday household necessity more expensive for American consumers, with toilet paper and other paper products emerging as an unexpected casualty of the escalating tariff war between the two neighbouring countries.
The latest escalation follows the collapse of trade negotiations between Washington and Ottawa, after which Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced plans for retaliatory tariffs on hundreds of American products. The new measures, scheduled to take effect on September 8, include duties ranging from 25% to 50% on a wide range of goods. Paper products, including materials used to manufacture toilet paper and facial tissues, are among those affected.
The potential impact on toilet paper prices highlights the extent to which the economies of the US and Canada remain closely connected despite the increasingly bitter political and economic confrontation. While much of the toilet paper sold in the US is produced domestically, manufacturers depend substantially on Canadian timber and other raw materials for production. Canada’s large forest resources make it a critical supplier to the American paper industry, meaning tariffs imposed on Canadian materials can eventually feed through to manufacturers, retailers and consumers.
The US imported about $328 million worth of toilet paper from Canada in 2024, according to World Bank figures. Canada was by far the largest foreign supplier of toilet paper to the American market that year. Major retailers also source significant quantities of paper products from Canada, increasing the potential exposure of consumers and businesses to higher import costs.
The development comes at a particularly sensitive time for American households, which have already been dealing with concerns about inflation and rising costs. Toilet paper may appear relatively insignificant compared with major industrial products affected by tariffs, but its widespread use means even a modest increase in prices could be noticeable to consumers.
The US is also an unusually large market for tissue products. Despite accounting for only around 4% of the global population, Americans are responsible for more than one-fifth of worldwide tissue consumption. Average annual toilet paper use in the country is estimated at around 141 rolls per person, placing the US at the top globally in per-capita consumption.
The latest dispute is part of a much broader deterioration in US-Canada trade relations. The United States recently imposed 50% tariffs on around $20 billion worth of Canadian goods following the breakdown of negotiations. The affected products include a wide range of items, from dairy products and alcohol to sporting goods and other consumer products. Canada has responded with its own tariffs covering more than 700 American goods, with measures targeting industries including agriculture, steel, appliances, seafood and paper products.
The paper industry has already experienced the effects of tariff uncertainty. Procter & Gamble, the company behind Charmin toilet paper, previously warned that tariffs could force it to raise prices. The additional measures announced by Canada could put further pressure on manufacturers that rely on cross-border supply chains.
The dispute is not limited to paper products. Canadian tariffs are also targeting American dairy products, seafood, household appliances, cosmetics, clothing, smartphones and recreational equipment. Meanwhile, Washington has imposed or threatened higher tariffs on several Canadian industries, including dairy, automobiles and auto parts. President Donald Trump has warned that tariffs on Canadian cars and components could rise further if a broader agreement is not reached by January 2027.
The confrontation has also spilled into the alcohol market. American states and Canadian provinces have taken measures affecting liquor imports, while popular Canadian whisky brands face steep tariffs in the US. Canadian authorities have urged consumers and businesses to support domestic products as part of a wider response to the trade measures.
Despite growing concerns over the effect of tariffs on household expenses, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has argued that the trade dispute will not significantly affect American consumers. The administration has maintained that the underlying US economy remains strong and that the tariffs will not produce the widespread consumer impact predicted by critics.
However, economists and businesses remain concerned that the interconnected nature of North American supply chains could make it difficult to prevent tariffs from being passed down to consumers. Paper products provide a clear example of how duties imposed on raw materials or imported goods can ultimately influence the prices of products manufactured within the US.
With the new Canadian measures due to come into force in September and negotiations between Washington and Ottawa stalled, uncertainty remains over how long the trade confrontation will continue. For American consumers, the dispute could therefore have consequences extending well beyond major industries, reaching even the most basic products kept in households across the country.
