Scientists in Alaska are undertaking an ambitious new study to determine whether entire Arctic ecosystems can adapt collectively to the rapidly changing climate, rather than individual species simply responding to environmental pressures on their own. The six-year research programme, backed by the US National Science Foundation, is examining how interconnected species respond to rising temperatures and whether their relationships could help preserve fragile tundra and freshwater ecosystems.
The project, known as the Evolving Meta-Ecosystems Institute, or Evome, has received $15 million in funding and brings together around 50 researchers from several US institutions. The scientists are focusing their work on Alaska’s North Slope, one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth. Their research centres on five species: the white-crowned sparrow, feltleaf willow, Arctic grayling, an aquatic mayfly and a ground beetle.
The central question behind the research is whether species that have evolved alongside one another can also adapt to climate change in ways that help preserve their wider ecological relationships. Traditionally, evolutionary biology has often focused on how individual organisms adapt to survive changing conditions. The Evome researchers, however, are examining whether adaptations in one species could trigger changes in another and potentially allow an entire ecological network to remain functional.
The Arctic provides an important testing ground for this idea because warming is occurring particularly rapidly in the region. Earlier snowmelt is altering the flow of rivers and streams, while increasingly dry conditions later in the summer are changing freshwater habitats. These changes can have consequences throughout the food chain.
Arctic grayling, a cold-water fish related to salmon, are particularly vulnerable to these shifts. The fish move between deeper lakes, where they spend the winter, and shallow streams used for spawning during the summer. Earlier snowmelt can initially produce large volumes of water but may be followed by dry conditions that leave sections of streams isolated. If fish become trapped in shrinking pools, their survival could be threatened. Their food sources, including mayflies and stoneflies, are also affected by changes in water temperature, vegetation and stream conditions.
Researchers are also studying the expansion of willow shrubs across areas of the tundra, a process known as shrubification. As willows spread along rivers and streams, they can change the amount of shade reaching the water and alter the flow of nutrients through the ecosystem. Increased vegetation could affect aquatic insects, which in turn could influence animals such as birds and fish that depend on them for food.
White-crowned sparrows are therefore another important part of the investigation. The migratory birds arrive in Alaska during the short Arctic summer and have only a limited period to establish territories, reproduce and raise their young. Researchers are collecting blood, feather and faecal samples to determine what the birds eat and how their diets change during the season. Their dependence on insects could provide clues about how changes occurring in streams eventually affect terrestrial wildlife.
Scientists are also examining the genetic diversity of the species involved to determine whether they possess enough genetic variation to adapt to changing conditions. Researchers believe genetics could reveal why some populations are more capable of coping with warmer temperatures than others. The team is developing genetic reference data, including a genome for Arctic grayling, which could help identify differences between populations and determine whether particular genetic characteristics are linked to adaptation.
Researchers will compare organisms collected from different parts of the Arctic and raise them under controlled conditions. Such experiments will allow scientists to examine how populations respond to different temperatures and environmental pressures. In the case of Arctic grayling, preliminary work suggests warmer conditions can accelerate development but may also increase mortality, highlighting the complex trade-offs associated with adaptation.
Fieldwork is being conducted across roughly 190 miles of Alaska’s North Slope, with scientists monitoring about 15 research sites. Their equipment includes temperature sensors in streams, recording devices for bird calls, insect traps and collection systems for willow leaves and aquatic organisms. Together, these observations are intended to build a detailed picture of how different parts of the ecosystem respond to environmental change.
The researchers say their findings could have implications far beyond Alaska. If interconnected species are capable of adapting together, understanding those relationships could help conservationists protect ecosystems elsewhere, including alpine and tropical environments facing similar climate pressures.
However, scientists caution that adaptation is not guaranteed. Even if some species are capable of adjusting to warmer conditions, the speed and scale of climate change may overwhelm their ability to respond. The researchers hope their work will reveal whether Arctic ecosystems can bend and reorganise as conditions change, or whether critical ecological connections will eventually break.
The study ultimately seeks to determine whether evolution can provide ecosystems with enough flexibility to withstand the climate crisis. Its findings could offer a new way of understanding ecological resilience—one that looks beyond the survival of individual species and instead considers whether the relationships linking an entire ecosystem can evolve quickly enough to keep it functioning.
