As millions of Argentines head to the polls on Sunday to elect half the members of the lower house and 24 of the 72 seats in the Senate, the outcome will be widely viewed as a decisive test for President Javier Milei’s already embattled administration.
Milei, who assumed office in December 2023 promising a radical shift toward austerity and ultra-libertarian reforms, finds himself navigating a treacherous crossroads. While his government has made some headway in reducing inflation from previously triple-digit levels, a confluence of economic hardship, internal scandals and public discontent now threatens to derail his political momentum.
The urgency of the moment has been amplified by the involvement of the United States and, in particular, former President Donald Trump, a high-profile ally of Milei. Trump has pledged a potential rescue package for Argentina of up to US$40 billion, yet he threatened to withdraw that support if the mid-term elections go badly for Milei. “Argentina is fighting for its life … They are dying,” Trump warned at a recent White House meeting with the Argentine leader.
Critics inside Argentina have condemned what they see as blatant foreign interference. Opposition lawmaker Itai Hagman accused Trump of attempting to “extort” Argentine voters by linking US aid to political outcomes. He argued that the Argentine people would defend their democracy by voting independently of foreign pressure.
Domestically, Milei’s governing coalition is under severe strain. The electorate is increasingly frustrated: according to analysts, nearly 60 per cent of Argentines say they cannot make ends meet, underscoring a widespread sense that the promised “new era of peace and prosperity” has yet to materialise.
Adding to the pressure are recent corruption scandals involving Milei’s own inner circle — including his sister and his chief of staff — and a precipitous drop in the peso’s value. These developments have chipped away at the president’s initial honeymoon phase.
Milei’s supporters urge patience, arguing that the economic reform agenda simply cannot yield results overnight. “We cannot solve all the problems that the country has had for 100 years in two years,” said one congressional candidate from Milei’s party, La Libertad Avanza. He insisted that Argentina was on the right path, albeit one that required “effort and sacrifice”.
Yet political analysts believe that optimism may not be enough to salvage the president’s position. Gustavo Córdoba, co-director of consultancy Zuban Córdoba, predicts that voters will punish the government for economic hardship. Meanwhile, Benjamin Gedan of the Stimson Centre cautions that if the election result turns into a rout, Argentina could face renewed economic turmoil and a fresh run on the peso.
A diluted or uncertain outcome would leave Milei in a precarious position: able to cling to power but almost incapable of delivering on ambitious structural reforms. Conversely, a strong rebound by the opposition would severely undermine his mandate and could precipitate a deeper political crisis in Argentina.
