A landmark new analysis of fire risk in Australia has warned that millions of people living on the fringes of major cities could face wildfires as intense and destructive as those that struck Los Angeles in January 2025, when blazes fuelled by extreme weather killed at least 31 people and caused tens of billions of dollars in damage. The report by the Climate Council and Emergency Leaders for Climate Action (ELCA) warns that the combination of climate-driven fire conditions and expanding urban development has created a perilous situation for Australia’s urban fringe communities.
The assessment, titled When Cities Burn: Could the LA Fires Happen Here?, highlights that at least 6.9 million Australians now live in suburbs immediately adjacent to bushland or grasslands surrounding cities such as Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Perth, Adelaide and Hobart. These zones share many of the same “dangerous characteristics” that made the Los Angeles fires so catastrophic — including prolonged dry spells, high fuel loads, strong winds and dense vegetation — combined with rapid population growth and housing development on the urban edge.
According to the report, the number of Australians living in these high-risk outer suburbs has climbed by roughly 65 per cent since 2001, and up to 90 per cent of homes in these areas were built before modern bushfire-resilient building standards were introduced. This makes many dwellings especially vulnerable to ember attack and fast-moving flames during extreme fire weather.
Former New South Wales Fire Commissioner and ELCA co-author Greg Mullins told media that the analysis shows it is no longer accurate to think of bushfires as primarily a rural issue. He noted that every major Australian capital — with the exception of Darwin — faces a real threat from fires of unprecedented scale, made more likely by climate change’s effect on weather patterns. Mullins said that intense bursts of rainfall followed by extended dry periods are creating conditions that allow fires to ignite and spread more rapidly than in the past.
Climate scientists and emergency officials are urging urgent action to stem the growing threat, stressing that Australia must boost disaster preparedness, strengthen land-management and emergency response capabilities, and accelerate efforts to cut climate-polluting emissions. The report points to the Los Angeles wildfires — which occurred outside of the typical fire season and were exacerbated by climate pollution — as a stark example of how traditional expectations for when and where fires occur can be dangerously outdated.
Experts also warn that without significant policy shifts and investment in mitigation measures, the next generation of bushfires could exceed the capacity of current firefighting resources. This includes calls to retrofit existing homes with fire-resilient features and enhance community resilience through planning and infrastructure upgrades.
The growing risk comes as Australia braces for more extreme heat and dry conditions, which meteorologists say will further elevate fire danger across large parts of the country. With climate change continuing to reshape environmental conditions, officials say that encroaching urbanisation on fire-prone landscapes must be addressed as part of a comprehensive national strategy to protect lives and property.
The report’s release has ignited fresh debate over how effectively Australia is preparing for future wildfire seasons, with community leaders and emergency services emphasising that adaptation and resilience efforts need to match the scale of the emerging threat.
