Australia has raised its 2024/25 wheat harvest estimate by 60,000 metric tons to 31.9 million tons, as favorable yields in the east and west are expected to offset losses in the south, leading to above-average production. This increase in wheat output, from one of the world’s top exporters, will contribute to global supply at a time when prices are at four-year lows.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) also revised its projections, expecting 500,000 tons less barley and 100,000 of the same quantity more canola than previously anticipated.
ABARES noted that higher yields in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia would largely compensate for reduced production in the southeast, where persistent dryness and severe frosts caused significant crop damage.
While frost and dry conditions prompted private analysts to lower wheat production estimates, the actual harvest results have exceeded expectations. ABARES forecasts that the 2024/25 wheat crop will be 23% larger than the previous season and 20% above the 10-year average.
For barley, Australia is expected to produce 11.7 million tons in 2024/25, an 8% increase from the previous year and 3% above the 10-year average. Canola production is forecast 8% less than last season but 23% above the 10-year average.
However, the latest weather forecasts from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology predict above-average rainfall in most cropping regions for December, which could disrupt the remaining wheat harvest and possibly degrade grain quality if realized.
If the predicted rainfall materializes, it could interrupt the harvest in the eastern cropping areas of Australia, potentially leading to delays and a decline in grain quality. This could result in downgraded wheat, barley, and canola, affecting the overall market and production expectations.
Despite the risk of weather disruptions, the outlook for Australia’s 2024/25 agricultural season remains strong, with the expected increase in wheat and barley production offering some optimism for global grain supplies. However, farmers and analysts will continue to monitor weather developments closely, as the changing conditions could significantly impact the final harvest yields and quality in the coming months.
ABARES also cautioned that the ongoing weather events could lead to localized challenges, especially in areas already affected by frost and drought, which might further influence the overall crop output for the season.
