Canada’s labour market delivered a stronger-than-anticipated performance in June, recording a surprisingly robust addition of 83100 jobs— the largest monthly increase in 2025 to date. According to fresh data released by Statistics Canada, this unexpected surge of 83100 jobs marks the first net gain in employment since January and sent the national unemployment rate modestly lower, sliding 0.1 percentage point to 6.9 %, contrary to forecasts predicting a rise to 7.1 %.
Economists had largely expected employment figures to stagnate or decline, making the surge all the more remarkable. Yet a closer look at the breakdown reveals much of the growth stemmed from part-time job creation, in contrast to full-time positions. Part-time employment rose sharply by approximately 69,500 roles, while full-time work expanded by a more modest 13,500 . Despite this disparity, the aggregate employment gains spanned a broad range of sectors, with wholesale and retail trade emerging as the standout contributor (+33,600 jobs), followed by healthcare and social assistance (+16,700), and manufacturing (+10,500). Only a few industries saw reductions, notably agriculture (–6,000 jobs) and transportation (–3,400).
Geographically, employment gains were particularly strong in the provinces of Alberta (+30,000), Quebec (+23,000), Ontario (+21,000), and Manitoba (+8,500), whereas Newfoundland and Labrador (–3,500) and Nova Scotia (–3,400) saw declines. The labour force participation rate climbed slightly from 65.3 % in May to 65.4 % in June, signalling a modest uptick in the proportion of Canadians either working or actively seeking employment.
While the headline unemployment rate improvement is welcome, underlying trends suggest caution. Long-term unemployment remains elevated, with more than one in five individuals unemployed for 27 weeks or longer— over 20 % of the jobless population. Moreover, despite strong job creation, the cumulative six‑month gain of 143,800 positions represents the slowest first-half growth since before the COVID-19 crisis, excluding 2020 anomalies.
On the inflation front, average hourly wages for permanent employees climbed by 3.2 % year over year to reach C$37.22, reinforcing concerns that wage pressures might sustain broader inflationary momentum. With sticky wage growth and steady employment adding inflation risk, investor expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) in July have diminished sharply. Futures markets show less than a 20 % chance of easing following the labour figures, down from about 30 % just prior to their release.
Economists echoed diverging sentiments on the data. Katherine Judge of CIBC Capital Markets noted that despite a still-elevated unemployment rate, the strength seen across multiple metrics significantly reduces the odds of a July rate cut. TD Securities’ Andrew Kelvin acknowledged the headline number’s strength while cautioning that employment figures can mask underlying volatility, particularly amid uneven population growth. Meanwhile, Desjardins economist Royce Mendes suggested that although the data nudged Q2 GDP forecasts higher, the elevated jobless levels mean the BoC will likely await next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release before deciding on rate adjustments.
Adding to the complexity, despite 83100 jobs adding, Canada continues to grapple with uncertainty from trade policy. US plans to impose a 35 % tariff from August 1 on certain Canadian imports— above existing levies on metals and autos— pose potential risks to sectors like manufacturing and transport. While initial job losses in export-oriented industries have been limited, notable exceptions include declines in transportation employment and the Windsor area’s auto hub, where unemployment has climbed to over 11 % .
In summary, Canada’s June labour report with 83100 jobs painted a picture of unexpected resilience, delivering its strongest job growth of the year and delivering a minor drop in unemployment. Yet beneath the strong headline figures lie mixed messages: part-time dominance, persistent long-term joblessness, solid wage inflation, and trade-related headwinds. These factors complicate the BoC’s policy outlook, and upcoming inflation data due in the coming week is likely to be the key to predicting whether Canada maintains its current interest rates or pivots towards easing.
