In a historic display of civic engagement, nearly 7.3 million Canadians cast their ballots during the early voting period for the upcoming federal election scheduled on April 28. This figure marks a 25% increase from the 5.8 million early voters through ballots in the 2021 general election, according to preliminary data released by Elections Canada.
The advance polling was conducted over four days, from April 18 to April 21. Elections Canada noted that these numbers are estimates, as some polling stations may still be reporting their figures. Nonetheless, the early turnout represents approximately 42% of the total voter participation in the 2021 election, which saw 17.2 million Canadians, or about 63% of the electorate, casting their votes.
This surge in early voting is attributed to heightened political enthusiasm, partly due to recent leadership changes. The ruling Liberal Party, now under the leadership of Prime Minister Mark Carney—who assumed office just over a month ago—has invigorated its base. Simultaneously, a significant portion of the electorate seeking change is rallying behind the opposition Conservative Party.
Current polls indicate a competitive race between the two major parties. A three-day rolling poll by Nanos Research, released on Tuesday, places the Liberals at 43% support, leading the Conservatives by six points. Similarly, the aggregator 338 Canada projects the Liberals securing 185 seats, surpassing the 172-seat threshold required for a majority in the 343-seat House of Commons. However, a daily tracker from Mainstreet Research shows both parties neck and neck at 40.4% support each.
With such unprecedented early voter turnout and closely matched party support, the upcoming federal election is poised to be one of the most consequential in recent Canadian history.
Recent polls indicate a tight contest. A three-day rolling poll by Nanos Research shows the Liberals leading with 43% support, six points ahead of the Conservatives. Meanwhile, Mainstreet Research’s daily tracker reports both parties tied at 40.4% support each. Seat projections by 338 Canada suggest the Liberals could secure 185 seats, surpassing the 172 needed for a majority in the 343-seat House of Commons.
