Canada’s Prime Minister, Mark Carney, has announced a snap election for April 28, setting the stage for a contest expected to center on Canada’s strained ties with the United States and concerns over economic and political stability.
“We are facing the greatest crisis of our time due to President [Donald] Trump’s unjustified trade measures and his threats to our sovereignty,” Carney stated. “He wants to weaken us so America can take control. We won’t allow that. We’ve moved past the initial shock of betrayal, but we must always remember its lessons. We need to stand together and protect ourselves.”
Carney’s request to dissolve the 44th Parliament was granted by Governor General Mary Simon, officially launching the election campaign. Under federal law, the campaign period must last at least 37 days.
By calling an early snap election, Carney sidesteps a potentially hostile Parliament, particularly since he does not hold a seat in the House of Commons. Parliament was set to reconvene after being suspended for two months, following former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation in January.
The move comes as the Liberal Party experiences an unexpected surge in popularity, overtaking the Conservatives in the polls. Some analysts predict they could secure a majority government. Before dissolution, the Liberals held 152 seats, the Conservatives 120, the Bloc Québécois 33, the NDP 24, and the Green Party two.
Political analyst Lori Turnbull of Dalhousie University highlighted Carney’s transformative impact on the Liberal Party’s fortunes. “This snap election is no longer just about party brands—it’s about leadership. While Canadians don’t directly elect their prime minister, more and more voters seem poised to support the leader they believe should hold the office.”
Surveys indicate Canadians see Carney as better equipped than Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to manage economic uncertainty, trade negotiations, and relations with the U.S. administration.
Trump has become a central figure in Canada’s political landscape, repeatedly threatening economic action against the country and even suggesting annexation. These threats have sparked widespread patriotism, calls for boycotts of American products, and a defiant national sentiment.
“The key issue of this election isn’t Trump—it’s uncertainty,” Turnbull explained. “Trump symbolizes that vulnerability. Canadians want a leader who can offer stability, and polling suggests Carney is filling that role.”
Carney’s campaign gained significant traction with a viral advertisement featuring Canadian actor and comedian Mike Myers. In the ad, Carney quizzes Myers on Canadian cultural references while both wear Team Canada hockey jerseys. The ad ends with Carney reassuring Myers that “there will always be a Canada” and both agreeing it’s time to go “elbows up,” a hockey phrase that has become a patriotic rallying cry. Myers’ jersey is emblazoned with “Never 51,” a rejection of Canada ever becoming a U.S. state. Within 24 hours, the ad amassed over seven million views—an unprecedented figure for a Canadian political campaign.
If the Liberals win in April, it would mark the biggest political comeback in Canada’s history, while the Conservatives would face a stunning defeat.
In 2023, polling aggregator CBC projected a 99% chance of a Conservative victory. This advantage remained until mid-February 2025 when Trudeau’s resignation, Trump’s annexation threats, and Carney’s leadership reshaped the political landscape.
“The Conservatives have struggled to connect with voters’ shifting concerns,” Turnbull noted. “Poilievre previously focused on affordability and housing—issues where the Liberals were out of touch. But now, he seems absent. The Conservatives have stuck to their old messaging while Canadians have moved on.”
Poilievre officially launched his campaign on Sunday and announced snap election, emphasizing a “Canada first” approach. “Trump has made it clear he wants a weak Canada that he can exploit,” he said. “A Liberal government will make us vulnerable. But Canada will never be an American state—we will always be sovereign and self-reliant.”
Without Trudeau as a target, the Conservatives have focused on Carney, blaming him for slow economic growth due to his past role as an adviser to the Liberal Party. They label him “sneaky Carney” and claim he intends to reinstate a controversial carbon tax, which he scrapped on his first day in office.
“That strategy relies on defining Carney in voters’ minds,” Turnbull explained. “But so far, it’s failing. Canadians aren’t buying the Conservative narrative about him. And in the coming weeks, that could be decisive.”
