Now in his ninth year as prime minister, Trudeau’s approval rating has dropped from 63% when he was first elected to 28% as of June, according to polls. This decline has affected his governing Liberal Party, which recently lost a Toronto seat it had held for 30 years to the Conservative Party during a by-election, signaling trouble ahead.
In late August, an intense encounter between Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and a local steelworker in northern Ontario was captured on camera. As Trudeau offered a handshake, the worker refused and confronted him, expressing frustration over his financial struggles despite having a stable job. In response, Trudeau highlighted his government’s efforts, such as a national dental care program and tariffs on Chinese steel to protect Canadian jobs.
The steelworker, however, remained unconvinced, saying, “I don’t believe you for a second” and added that he thought Trudeau would only be in office for another year. This exchange, viewed by millions online, has been described by the Toronto Globe and Mail as a snapshot of current Canadian politics, reflecting the growing public fatigue and dissatisfaction with Trudeau.
On Monday, Trudeau and the Liberals face another challenge, with a critical by-election in Montreal, Quebec, and the resumption of parliament. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has pledged to introduce a no-confidence motion as soon as possible, potentially forcing an election.
Polls suggest that if Canadians vote now, it could spell the end of Trudeau’s tenure. Darrell Bricker, a political scientist and pollster with Ipsos, compared the situation to the UK’s historic defeat of the Tories earlier this year, saying, “It’s basically over,” and that Trudeau’s government is approaching an inevitable end.
This marks a sharp reversal for Trudeau, who was first elected in 2015 on a platform of positivity and middle-class growth. Early in his tenure, he gained global recognition as a progressive leader, even gracing the cover of Rolling Stone. However, recent years have brought growing discontent among Canadians. Rising housing costs, higher grocery prices, visible crime, and a strained healthcare system have all contributed to a perception of decline. While many of these issues are beyond federal control, much of the blame has been directed at Trudeau.
In an August Globe and Mail opinion piece, Omer Aziz, a former policy advisor to Trudeau, described the current political climate as a systemic failure and said the Canadian dream is fading. Aziz remarked that the optimism surrounding Trudeau’s initial election hasn’t materialized into real progress, with the public now looking elsewhere for solutions.
After a significant by-election loss in June, Trudeau has faced mounting pressure to step down, even from within his own party. His campaign manager, Jeremy Broadhurst, resigned in September, reportedly doubting Trudeau’s ability to win the next election. Despite this, Trudeau has continued to travel across the country, outlining plans to address Canada’s challenges, including building nearly four million new homes by 2031 and capping immigration to ease pressure on public resources.
Trudeau has also positioned himself as the alternative to Conservative leader Poilievre, stressing that his party supports investments in Canadians, while accusing the Conservatives of wanting to cut key programs. But despite these efforts, the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives continues to widen.
According to Aziz, public opinion seems set, and the Liberal Party’s current actions are too little, too late. Meanwhile, the New Democratic Party (NDP) recently withdrew from a confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals, citing the government’s weakness and corporate ties. The deal had been expected to last until June 2025, but without NDP support, every day in parliament now becomes crucial for the Liberals.
Bricker concluded, “It’s going to be a very difficult autumn for the Liberals.”
