Canada has recorded its largest population drop in at least 80 years, a sharp reversal from years of robust growth driven by immigration, as new data show the nation’s population declined significantly between July and September 2025. According to Statistics Canada, the country’s population shrank by 76,068 people during this period — a 0.2 per cent decrease — marking the most pronounced quarterly fall outside the COVID-19 pandemic era.
The decline follows a dramatic reduction in the number of non-permanent residents, particularly international students, who have traditionally bolstered Canada’s demographic expansion. Statistics Canada noted that a drop of 176,479 non-permanent residents was the chief reason for the overall population decrease in the third quarter of 2025, as outflows of temporary residents outpaced new arrivals.
On October 1, 2025, the number of non-permanent residents stood at 2,847,737 — about 6.8 per cent of Canada’s total population, compared with 3,024,216 (7.3 per cent) on July 1. The statistics agency attributed this drop to record-high numbers of temporary residents leaving the country.
The sharp population decline contrasts with Canada’s recent demographic history. In the third quarter of 2023, the country saw a remarkable population increase of 418,634 people (1 per cent) — the strongest quarterly growth since 1957 — largely driven by immigration policies that led to an influx of temporary residents. But that expansion later sparked public concerns about housing affordability and pressure on infrastructure, prompting Ottawa to tighten its immigration rules.
In the third quarter of 2024, Canada still posted population growth of 231,803 people (0.6 per cent), but the shift in 2025 underscores how quickly trends have changed amid stricter immigration measures.
A significant factor in the decline has been the precipitous fall in international student admissions, a key segment of the temporary resident population. Data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) indicate that between July and September 2025, Indian students received 24,030 study permits out of 146,505 issued overall (16.4 per cent). In contrast, during the same quarter in 2024, Indian nationals were issued 52,425 study visas, nearly 30 per cent of the total, highlighting a dramatic reduction year-on-year.
The decline in international student numbers has rippled across the broader education sector and local economies that depend on tuition revenue and associated spending. The trend appears to align with policy changes that began in late 2023 and continued through this year, as the federal government introduced caps on study permits and other temporary resident categories in response to political and infrastructure concerns.
In November 2025, the government projected that international student permit issuance would drop by seven per cent in 2026, with a cap of 408,000 study permits — including both new entrants and extensions — compared with a 2025 target of 437,000 and even higher figures in 2024. The IRCC described these limits as effective in slowing the growth of Canada’s temporary resident population, which has fallen from over a million study permit holders in early 2024 to around 725,000 by late 2025.
The broader immigration levels plan presented in Parliament recently proposes a 43 per cent reduction in the intake of temporary residents, including workers and international students, trimming the annual target for new international students from 305,000 to 155,000 — with further reductions slated through 2028.
The population contraction has significant implications for Canada’s labour market, service demands and long-term demographic outlook, triggering debates among policymakers, educators and economists about how best to balance population growth with social and economic pressures. While the government argues the changes are necessary to stabilize public systems and infrastructure, critics warn that reduced immigration could challenge sectors reliant on foreign students and temporary workers in the years ahead.
Overall, Canada’s latest figures reflect a turning point in the nation’s demographic trajectory, underscoring how shifts in immigration strategy can rapidly reshape population dynamics and stir national discourse about the future of growth and inclusion.
