According to a recent survey, three-quarters of Australians believe that China may become a military threat to Australia within the next two decades, yet, most Australians believe that Australia should remain neutral in the event of a conflict between China and the United States.
The 2023 Lowy Institute poll, which polled more than 2,000 Australians in March on various issues, revealed that 44% of Australians regard China as “more of an economic partner,” while 52% see the country as “more of a security threat.” This represents a decline of 11 percentage points compared to the results of the same poll conducted the previous year.
More than six in ten Australians consider the possibility of a military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan to be a significant threat. This percentage is almost double what it was in the year 2020.
The survey also discovered that 82% of Australians believe that an alliance with the United States is “very important” or “fairly important” to the security of the country, which is a drop of five points from the record high reached the previous year.
On the other hand, the survey discovered that 74% of Australians believe that Australia’s connection with the United States makes it more likely that the country will be drawn into a war in Asia.
75% of Australians now believe that it is “very” or even “somewhat” likely that China will definately become a military danger to Australia in the next 20 years. This is a 30-point increase from the percentage of Australians who held this view in 2018.
When asked how Australia should react if China invades Taiwan, 80% of respondents supported the idea that Australia should take in Taiwanese refugees, and 76% backed the idea that Australia should impose economic and diplomatic penalties on China.
Just 42% of respondents said they were in favour of Australia sending military soldiers to Taiwan “to help defend it from China.”
According to Ryan Neelam, the director of the public opinion and international policy program at the Lowy Institute, the poll was conducted against the backdrop of a diplomatic relationship that is gradually becoming more stable between Australia and China.
He stated that the preceding three years had been a “grim time” for Australia’s relationship with China, but Australians had seen “glimmers of progress” during this time.
“The decline in the number of people who see China as a security threat this year probably reflects that people are paying attention to the way in which relations between Australia and China have stabilised,” he added.
“Australians are aware, and they pay attention to what political leaders have to say. Ever since the Australian government was elected, Beijing has been more conciliatory than it was in the years prior, and this has resulted in a temperature reduction in the relationship between the two countries.”
According to Neelam, the findings demonstrated that Australia is currently undergoing a “different period” in comparison to the preceding three years.
But he stated that Australians were still “wary” of China, and he pointed to the low levels of trust that Australians had that China would act responsibly in the world (15%), as well as the low levels of confidence in the Chinese president, Xi Jinping (11%). He claimed that these two factors contributed to the “wariness” of Australians toward China. When we last checked, more than half of Australians believed China would behave responsibly in international affairs.
“This is not exactly a bright new period in relations because even the government has been careful about how it frames the state of the relationship, and I think attitudes in Australia are in line with that cautious readjustment,”
There has not been a significant shift in sentiment on the Aukus agreement; the majority of respondents (67%) continue to express support for the submarine accord. Almost half of all Australians are under the impression that the cost of maintaining nuclear-powered submarines is not justified.
Following data breaches at Optus, Medicare, and Latitude, Neelam stated that worry regarding cybersecurity had been steadily increasing over the past couple of years. This news comes as a direct result of those incidents.
“Those three attacks within the previous year would have really driven it home for people, particularly considering the fact that we’ve seen medical and financial information made public.
“And when we take into account the frequency and severity of the attacks, it is only logical that this will continue to be a source of anxiety for Australians,”
