China has decided against hosting the 33rd United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP33) in 2028, ending months of deliberations over whether the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter should take up the responsibility of organising one of the most significant international climate gatherings. The decision has disappointed climate experts and campaigners, who had hoped that Beijing would use its growing influence in clean energy technologies to demonstrate leadership in tackling the global climate crisis.
China’s withdrawal from the potential race has opened the field for other countries in the Asia-Pacific region to host the summit. Under the rules of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the 2028 conference is required to be hosted by a country from the Asian region. Uzbekistan, South Korea, Indonesia and Thailand are among the countries understood to be considering the possibility of hosting the event.
The decision comes at a time when the United States, under President Donald Trump, has stepped away from several international climate commitments. The US administration has rejected climate science and withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, while also moving to exit the 1992 UNFCCC, the international treaty that provides the foundation for global climate negotiations.
Climate experts had viewed China’s possible candidature as an opportunity for the country to assume a more prominent role in international climate diplomacy, particularly in the absence of strong American participation. Former US vice-president Al Gore expressed disappointment over Beijing’s decision, saying he would have supported the idea of China hosting the summit.
China occupies an unusual position in the global climate debate. It is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases and remains heavily dependent on coal, but it has also emerged as a global leader in renewable energy manufacturing, electric vehicles and other low-carbon technologies. The country is undergoing a major economic transformation, increasingly shifting towards clean energy and electrification.
Its renewable energy generation capacity has surpassed its coal-fired power capacity, while its greenhouse gas emissions appear to have registered a slight decline this year. Electric vehicle sales have also expanded rapidly, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the country’s automobile market in the previous month. China’s clean energy industries contributed more than 90 per cent of the growth in its investment last year, highlighting the growing economic significance of its transition towards low-carbon technologies.
Climate policy experts believe that China’s position as a major industrial power, coupled with its investments in renewable energy and clean technology, would have made it an influential host for the 2028 summit. However, Beijing has not publicly explained why it decided against entering the race.
Several experts have suggested that the timing of the 2028 US presidential election could have influenced China’s decision. The next US presidential election is scheduled for November 7, 2028, while COP33 is scheduled to take place from November 6 to 17, placing the two major international events almost simultaneously.
Although the Democrats have shown renewed political strength in recent midterm elections, even a change in the US administration would not take effect until January 2029. This means the climate summit could coincide with the final months of Trump’s presidency, potentially complicating international climate diplomacy.
India had also considered hosting COP33 for several months earlier this year but subsequently decided against submitting a bid. The country has made significant progress in expanding renewable energy capacity and has exceeded some of its clean energy targets. However, its continued dependence on coal and rising coal consumption remain important challenges in its energy transition.
COP33 is expected to be particularly significant as countries will undertake the next global stocktake under the 2015 Paris Agreement. The exercise assesses collective progress towards meeting international climate commitments, particularly efforts to limit the rise in global average temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Scientists have warned that the world is now certain to temporarily exceed the 1.5-degree threshold. However, they maintain that countries must continue to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit the extent and duration of this temperature overshoot to prevent increasingly severe consequences, including extreme weather events, rising sea levels and other climate-related disasters.
Meanwhile, the ongoing COP31 conference in Turkey is being jointly presided over by the Turkish and Australian governments. No decision on the host country for COP33 is expected during the current summit, leaving the selection process open as Asian nations weigh their options for hosting the crucial 2028 climate negotiations.
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