Tokyo saw a striking downturn in Chinese tourist arrivals in December 2025 as tensions between Japan and China over Taiwan spilled into the travel sector, underscoring the growing diplomatic rift between the two Asian powers. Official figures released by Japan’s transport ministry show that the number of visitors from mainland China last month dropped by about 45 per cent compared with the same period a year earlier, falling to roughly 330,000. The sharp decline — nearly a halving of Chinese arrivals — comes amid a heated dispute that erupted after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signalled that Tokyo could consider military action if Beijing were to attempt an invasion of Taiwan, a self-governing democracy that China claims as its own territory.
The downturn in Chinese tourists has been attributed directly to diplomatic tensions, with Beijing strongly criticising Takaichi’s remarks and issuing formal travel advisories urging Chinese citizens to avoid holidays in Japan. Chinese authorities have also discouraged students from studying in Japan and suspended a range of cultural exchanges and film releases, part of a broader backlash that reflects deteriorating bilateral relations. Flights between the two countries have been reduced and group tour bookings were cancelled as the chill in ties deepened toward the end of the year.
Despite the steep fall in visitors from China, Japan overall achieved record tourism figures in 2025, with total foreign arrivals reaching 42.7 million — surpassing the previous high of nearly 37 million set in 2024. Officials said strong inbound travel from other markets helped offset much of the decline in Chinese visitors, and record spending by tourists contributed to a total tourism revenue estimated at around ¥9.5 trillion (some $60 billion). Still, industry analysts caution that the slump among China’s travellers — who have long been among the highest spenders — could have lingering effects on local economies reliant on Chinese tourism and duty-free sales.
Data from earlier in 2025 had shown Chinese arrivals growing robustly for most of the year, with the number of tourists from mainland China rising by more than 40 per cent through October compared with the previous year. They accounted for roughly a quarter of all inbound visitors and were credited with significant retail and hospitality spending. That trend reversed sharply after the diplomatic dispute intensified in November, illustrating how geopolitical tensions can swiftly impact people-to-people connections and commercial flows between the two nations.
Transport Minister Yasushi Kaneko sought to play down concerns about the drop in Chinese visitors, saying the record annual total of foreign tourists showed Japan’s continued appeal as a global destination and expressing hope that Chinese travellers would “return as soon as possible.” Nevertheless, Japanese firms and economists warn that if the travel slump persists into 2026, it could dampen growth projections for the tourism sector and related industries. Beyond tourism, broader economic ties between the world’s second- and third-largest economies are already showing stress, with surveys indicating that many Japanese companies are feeling the effects of the diplomatic chill on trade and investment.
