A new scientific analysis reveals that the world’s major coffee-producing countries are increasingly becoming inhospitable to the crops that supply billions of cups of coffee each day, with climate change emerging as a central driver of this shift. Researchers have found that coffee-growing regions across 25 countries — accounting for about 97 per cent of global coffee output — are experiencing significantly more days of extreme heat that are harmful to coffee plants than they would in a world without human-induced warming.
According to the data, between 2021 and 2025 these nations saw an average of 47 additional days per year with temperatures high enough to damage coffee plants compared with what would have been expected in a climate without excess carbon emissions. In the five largest coffee producers — Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia and Indonesia — the increase was even higher at around 57 extra days annually with temperatures above roughly 30 °C, a threshold regarded as dangerous for key varieties, especially the prized Arabica bean.
Brazil, which leads the world’s coffee market, faced around 70 extra days of harmful heat each year, while countries such as El Salvador recorded nearly 99 additional hot days according to the analysis. India, though smaller in global output — contributing about 3.5 per cent of total production — endured about 30 additional hot days annually, with states like Kerala among the hardest hit by rising temperatures.
Coffee plants are highly sensitive to both heat and water stress, and prolonged exposure to high temperatures can impair flowering, reduce bean quality and yield, and make crops more susceptible to disease and pests. Arabica coffee — which makes up a large share of global production and is valued for its flavour — is particularly vulnerable to high temperatures and direct sunlight. Robusta varieties, though somewhat more heat tolerant, are also under stress as heat waves become more frequent.
The consequences of this trend are far-reaching. Many countries already experiencing additional hot days are also seeing rising prices and economic stress associated with smaller harvests. Global coffee prices have risen sharply in recent years as climate impacts, extreme weather and disruption of traditional growing cycles have converged with market and supply chain pressures.
This situation is not just a commercial concern: in nations such as Ethiopia, coffee is deeply woven into the social and economic fabric. It supports millions of households and represents a significant portion of export revenues. Farmers and agricultural cooperatives in these regions are already witnessing the effects of the climate shifts, with reports of reduced yields, erratic flowering patterns and increased vulnerability to disease and pests.
Efforts to adapt — including planting shade-tolerant cultivars, implementing agroforestry practices and distributing energy-efficient cookstoves to reduce deforestation — have had some local success, but analysts warn that these measures are insufficient without substantial climate finance and stronger policy action. Smallholder farmers, who produce a large share of the world’s coffee, have historically received only a fraction of the funds needed to adapt to the rapid changes brought about by the warming climate.
Experts say that without more ambitious global climate mitigation and adaptation strategies, the space suitable for coffee cultivation could shrink or shift to new regions, potentially triggering supply shortages, price volatility and disruption to rural economies dependent on the crop. For consumers, the impacts may be felt in the cost and availability of coffee — one of the world’s most popular beverages — with ripple effects from producers to households worldwide.
