A severe drought last year devastated many coffee farmers in Brazil, drying out trees and pushing global coffee prices to record highs but they are now turning to costly irrigation. However, Rodrigo Brondani expects a strong harvest. His plantation in Bahia, in Brazil’s northeast, stands in stark contrast to the traditional mountainside farms of Latin America.
At the Joha farm, where Brondani is the lead manager, rows of coffee plants thrive under an extensive irrigation system. With 900 hectares of irrigated coffee fields—more than 20 times the size of the average Brazilian coffee farm—the plantation exemplifies the growing importance of large-scale, irrigated farming in sustaining global coffee supply. The western region of Bahia, a relatively new coffee-growing hub, now relies heavily on irrigation. Brondani anticipates yields of up to 80 bags (60 kg each) per hectare, double Brazil’s national average, making the farm’s latest harvest, completed in October, worth approximately $17 million at current market prices.
Media interviewed over 20 experts, including farmers, agronomists, and coffee executives, to assess how climate change-driven shifts in rainfall are transforming the industry. Traditionally, Brazilian coffee growers depended on reliable spring and summer rains, with only 30% of plantations using irrigation. However, after last year’s drought, that is changing. Yet, irrigation is expensive and depends on factors such as water source proximity and groundwater depth.
In some parts of Minas Gerais—Brazil’s heartland for coffee production—the water table has dropped so much that irrigation has become extremely difficult. Unlike Joha farm, where irrigation runs up to 20 hours a day, many coffee trees in Minas Gerais were severely damaged by last year’s drought, leaving them weak and less productive. Analysts predict that Brazilian coffee supplies—accounting for about 35% of global consumption—will shrink again this year.
Osmar Junior, a farmer in Minas Gerais without irrigation, saw his production collapse from 2,000 bags in 2020 to just 700 in 2024. “Without irrigation, making coffee farming profitable is becoming increasingly difficult,” he said.
The global coffee market faces a supply crunch. For the fourth time in six years, demand is expected to outstrip production in 2025. Over the past three years, the world has consumed 12.5 million more bags (750,000 metric tonnes) of coffee than it produced, leading to a significant depletion of stockpiles. This shortfall has already driven coffee prices up nearly 25% in 2025, following a staggering 70% surge in 2024. The price of high-quality arabica futures hit a record $4.40 per pound in February.
As a result, major coffee brands such as Nestlé’s Nespresso, Starbucks, and JDE Peet have raised prices, with further increases expected.
The Future of Coffee: Irrigation, but Not Enough Water
According to Sergio Vieira, a director at AFB&IOB—the holding company that owns Joha farm and manages 20,000 hectares of coffee fields in Brazil—irrigation is the future of coffee farming. “In our view, coffee cultivation has permanently changed,” he said.
When AFB&IOB acquired Joha farm in 2009, water access was not as pressing a concern as it is today. Now, when looking for new farms to buy, the primary consideration is water availability.
Western Bahia benefits from the Urucuia Aquifer, one of the world’s largest, which in some areas lies just 20 meters below the surface. However, in Minas Gerais, water tables have dropped so drastically that farmers must drill wells as deep as 300 meters—an expensive and uncertain process that may yield only weak water flow.
Severe water shortages led several municipalities in Minas Gerais to impose irrigation restrictions in 2024.
Data from Fundacao Procafe, which monitors soil moisture in Minas Gerais, shows a worsening trend. By the end of the dry season in October 2024, the soil moisture deficit in southern Minas Gerais—the country’s top coffee-growing region—had reached 300 millimeters, up from 110 mm in 2023 and far above the historical average, which typically shows a surplus of 20 mm.
“The recent deficits we’ve seen are alarming,” said Procafe researcher Rodrigo Paiva, referring to the severe shortfalls recorded in both 2023 and 2024.
With rising temperatures and unpredictable rainfall patterns, Brazil’s coffee farmers are racing to adapt. But as water resources become scarcer, the future of coffee farming—and global coffee prices—remains uncertain.
