Cuba is confronting an extraordinary humanitarian and economic crisis as its already fragile energy supplies collapse, pushing the island into severe fuel shortages that are crippling everyday life and threatening wider societal breakdown. The crisis, accelerated by U.S. pressure on Cuba’s traditional oil suppliers and a collapse in Venezuelan exports, has left the island with only days of oil reserves, widespread blackouts, halted transport systems, and a government struggling to maintain essential services.
For decades, Cuba’s economy has relied heavily on subsidised oil from Venezuela under a long-standing cooperation pact. That arrangement has deteriorated sharply in recent years as Venezuela’s own oil production plummeted from historical highs to a fraction of its former output. By late 2025, shipments from Caracas had fallen to levels that could no longer sustain Cuba’s needs, while domestic production remained minimal.
The situation took a dramatic turn after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. In the weeks that followed, the Trump administration intensified its campaign to isolate Cuba economically by threatening tariffs on any country that sold oil to Havana, effectively scaring off traditional partners such as Mexico and forcing a halt to most imports. Mexico, once Cuba’s second-largest source of fuel, has already curtailed shipments and instead provided limited humanitarian aid, while Russia has offered diplomatic support and expressed willingness to assist amid the crisis.
As a result of these pressures, Cuba’s oil reserves have dwindled to an estimated 15–20 days’ worth, according to independent data. Without new shipments on the horizon, experts warn the island could reach “zero hour” by mid-March, when fuel stocks are exhausted entirely. Cuban officials have acknowledged that they lack strategic reserves and have always operated on a day-to-day basis, leaving the nation perilously exposed.
The effects on daily life have been swift and severe. Frequent blackouts have become the norm across cities and provinces, with reports of powercuts lasting well into double-digit hours daily. Public transport services in Havana have ground to a halt due to a lack of fuel, forcing residents to find alternative means of getting around or stay home. The government has implemented stringent rationing measures, including a four-day workweek for state enterprises, reduced fuel sales, and warnings to airlines that jet fuel will not be available until at least March, prompting some carriers to suspend flights altogether.
This energy collapse has broader economic and social implications. Cuba’s tourism sector, a vital source of foreign exchange, has suffered from cancelled flights, declining visitor numbers, and the closure of several hotel properties. Essential services such as hospitals, water pumping, and food distribution networks are under strain, threatening food security as refrigeration and transport falter. The United Nations has raised alarms about the potential for a full-blown humanitarian emergency if energy needs are not addressed.
Despite the worsening conditions, the Cuban government has indicated a willingness to engage in dialogue with the United States. President Miguel Díaz-Canel and other officials have stated they are open to talks on a range of issues without preconditions, though they reject any discussion perceived as interference in domestic affairs. Havana insists it will defend its sovereignty even as it navigates one of the most precarious periods in its modern history.
International responses have been mixed. While some nations and organisations call for humanitarian considerations and urge de-escalation, others remain cautious about confronting U.S. policy directly, leaving Cuba increasingly isolated. With little immediate relief expected, experts suggest the crisis could shape the country’s political and economic landscape for years to come.
