Singapore could face a population decline within the next decade without immigration, a demographic shift that would have wide-reaching impact, particularly on the city’s workforce and economic vitality, according to a media report on Monday.
On September 9, Indranee Rajah, Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office, responded to a parliamentary question, stating: “If current trends persist, the number of citizen deaths may surpass births in the early 2030s.” In 2023, Singapore recorded 24,726 citizen deaths, a significant 40% rise from 17,691 deaths in 2014, as reported by media. Meanwhile, citizen births decreased by 13% over the same period, with 28,877 births in 2023, down from 33,193 in 2014.
Citizen births refer to babies born to at least one Singaporean parent, who automatically gain citizenship at birth. Indranee clarified that these projections are based on demographic assumptions that may or may not materialize over time.
Dr. Tan Poh Lin, a senior research fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies, commented that the exact year when deaths surpass births is less important than the growing gap between the two. The rapid pace of demographic change will challenge the population and workforce’s ability to adapt, she warned.
According to Associate Professor Walter Theseira, a labour economist from the Singapore University of Social Sciences, a shrinking population would result in a declining resident labour force and negatively impact sectors dependent on domestic consumption, like food and retail.
Dr. Leong Chan-Hoong, head of the Social Cohesion Research Programme at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, noted that an aging population could also increase the tax burden on working-age adults.
As of June 2023, Singapore’s population stood at 5.92 million, reflecting a 5% rise from the previous year. The citizen population grew by 1.6% to 3.61 million, while the permanent resident population increased by 3.7% to 0.54 million. Non-residents, including foreigners working or studying in Singapore, saw a 13.1% increase, rising from 1.56 million in June 2022 to 1.77 million in June 2023, according to the Population-In-Brief 2023 report.
