It’s no secret that Gungahlin is among the areas of Australia with the highest growth, and this trend shows no signs of slowing down.
In addition to the two brand-new suburbs of Jacka and Kenny that will open within the next five years, the ACT government is currently negotiating with NSW to expand the northwestern border near Hall to include the greenfield Ginninderry development.
And according to recent population projections from the ACT Treasury, 800,000 people are expected to live in Canberra in 40 years, with the majority residing in the inner north, Molonglo Valley, and Belconnen.
The ACT Government’s preliminary land-release program also reflects this, with most of the 30,000 new homes planned for construction over the next five years going to Gungahlin, Belconnen, and the Molonglo Valley.
There is a glaring omission from all of this.
At 19%, Tuggeranong still makes up the second-largest portion of the ACT’s population, trailing only Belconnen (23%). But during the next 40 years, Tuggeranong and Weston Creek are anticipated to stay caught up as the other districts grow.
The ACT Treasury report stated that “established and relatively older districts” like Tuggeranong and Weston Creek “are projected to shrink or grow in population by 2060.”
On average, the population centre, or the location nearest to most Canberrans, was halfway between the inner South and Woden Valley a generation ago when the southernmost area was booming. And it was slowly moving southward.
However, recent research by Canberra found that since the turn of the century, the ACT’s population centre has been shifting north at roughly 27 centimetres per day as more individuals choose to live further north.
Will the population centre, however, ever descend again? In other words, what is happening to “the deep south”?
Several apartment buildings have indeed sprouted up across Tuggeranong Creek during the past ten years, which has caused the district’s share of single detached homes to drop from 87 per cent in 2016 to 80 per cent in 2021.
The ACT Government has committed $4.75 million for “design and construct improvements” over the Lake Tuggeranong waterfront later this year as a result of a period of consultation. This comes after a redesign of the main road, Anketell Street. Over the years, South. Point’s primary shopping centre has also received several additional retailers to the point that it now eclipses Westfield Woden.
The government previewed the future earlier this year with its draft district strategies, which “identify areas for future growth across our city.”
“These areas include land for residential homes, community infrastructure, including schools, and commercial purposes,” an ACT Government spokeswoman told Region.
According to the draft district strategy, “the areas with the best overall suitability for future growth are generally concentrated in the town centre and northern half of the district, aligned with the Athlon Drive corridor and the indicative future light rail route, the group centres and town centre, and much of Kambah.”
“The southernmost suburbs typically rank lower relative suitability, influenced by travel times and ease of access to amenities and services.”
There are additional reasons why Tuggeranong won’t be getting any new suburbs, such as the government’s mandate that up to 70% of the ACT’s new dwellings be constructed inside the existing urban footprint (often known as “infill”).
The spokeswoman stated, “We know that infill development provides for a more compact and sustainable city; it is cheaper to create and buy.
We oppose urban sprawl because it lengthens travel times and has adverse effects on the environment.
The Rob Roy Range Nature Reserve to the South, the NSW border to the east, and the Tidbinbilla Nature Reserve to the west all encircle Tuggeranong. Additionally, the one piece of available land on the west side of the Murrumbidgee River was overlooked at first.
The former Territory and Municipal Services (TAMS) department informed then-Planning Minister Andrew Barr in 2010 that West Murrumbidgee “should not be considered for development as it contains significant yellow box and red gum areas grassy woodland endangered ecological community and secondary grassland.”
TAMS has underlined the fire dangers related to development in this area and the conservation benefits.
Construction over the river has been ruled out due to “the enormous development costs,” the ACT Government spokeswoman revealed to Region.
“Maintaining a buffer between the urban periphery and Namadgi National Park is also crucial.”
The “Western Edge” is the focus of the only current plans to increase the ACT’s territory. This area is 9800 hectares and is flanked by Belconnen, Molonglo Valley, Weston Creek, and the summit of Tuggeranong. It is still on the eastern bank of the river.
Although the government is still figuring out what this will look like, areas closest to the city’s centre are anticipated to experience the most significant increase in job prospects and property values over the coming few decades.
Therefore, the population centre of the ACT will keep moving relentlessly north for the foreseeable future.
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