However, scientists firmly state that earthquakes are mostly unpredictable. Their inherent unpredictability makes them especially alarming, as millions on North America’s West Coast fear that “the big one” could strike at any time, reshaping landscapes and lives.
In mid-October, a social media influencer told his large online following that an earthquake would soon hit the westernmost part of California, south of Eureka. Two months later, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake struck the region, triggering a tsunami warning and increasing his popularity as people turned to him for future predictions.
“So for those who doubt me, how can you say this was just a coincidence? It takes real skill to predict where earthquakes will occur,” he said on New Year’s Eve.
Lucy Jones, a veteran seismologist and author of The Big Ones, has spent decades studying earthquake probabilities and strategies to improve resilience. She explains that people have always sought to predict major earthquakes and often claim to have discovered a pattern.
“The human instinct to find patterns in the face of danger is strong—it’s a natural reaction to fear,” Jones told the media. “But it doesn’t provide any actual predictive power.”
According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), around 100,000 earthquakes are felt globally each year, making the desire for early warnings understandable. The Eureka area, where December’s earthquake occurred, has experienced over 700 tremors in the past year alone, including more than 10 in the last week.
This region is among the most seismically active in the US due to the Mendocino Triple Junction, where three tectonic plates meet. Earthquakes occur when stress builds up along fault lines and is suddenly released. Predicting an earthquake in this region is relatively easy, Jones noted, though a magnitude 7 event remains rare.
Since 1900, only 11 quakes of magnitude 7 or higher have hit this area, five of which—including the one predicted by the social media figure—occurred in the same region. Despite this, Jones emphasized that forecasting an earthquake with precision remains impossible due to the complex geological processes involved.
The USGS explains that while scientists understand why earthquakes happen, they do not expect to develop the ability to predict them in the foreseeable future. The best they can do is estimate the probability of an earthquake occurring in a given region within a certain timeframe.
Geological records indicate that large earthquakes follow a pattern over centuries. For instance, the Cascadia subduction zone produces massive quakes and tsunamis every 300 to 500 years, while Southern California’s San Andreas Fault experiences major tremors every 200 to 300 years. Scientists warn that “the big one” could strike either region at any time.
Jones recalls receiving thousands of earthquake predictions during her career, including faxes in the 1990s from people convinced they had cracked the code. “When predictions come in every week, someone is bound to get lucky,” she said. “But then they usually overreach and make 10 more incorrect predictions.”
This seems to be the case with the social media predictor, who lacks a scientific background. He has long insisted that an unprecedented magnitude 10.3 quake will hit southwest Alaska or islands near New Zealand, potentially disrupting global trade.
For an earthquake prediction to be scientifically valid, the USGS states it must specify the date, time, location, and magnitude. However, this individual’s timeline has continuously shifted—at one point linking it to Donald Trump’s presidency and later extending it to 2030. Despite no such event occurring, he remains convinced it will happen.
“This isn’t random or luck,” he told the media.
Jones attributes such beliefs to the human tendency to find patterns where none exist. “Random events can appear structured—just like how we see constellations in the stars,” she explained. “Fear drives people to predict disasters, but that doesn’t make the predictions accurate.”
While predicting earthquakes remains impossible, preparation is key. Each October, millions participate in The Great ShakeOut, the world’s largest earthquake drill. Created by the Southern California Earthquake Center, the drill teaches the “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” method—taking cover under sturdy objects and holding on until the shaking stops. The event has since expanded to other earthquake-prone regions.
In addition, residents of the US West Coast rely on ShakeAlert, a USGS-run phone alert system that detects early earthquake pressure waves. While it cannot predict quakes in advance, it provides crucial seconds of warning, making it the closest thing to an earthquake predictor developed so far.
