Global efforts to combat HIV have made notable progress, with new HIV infections dropping by 22% and HIV-related deaths declining by 40% globally, according to estimates published in journal. However, the study warns that the current trajectory suggests the world is falling short of achieving the UNAIDS 2030 targets for reducing new infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90%.
The report highlights that while some regions have seen significant improvements, others lag behind. For instance, the number of people living with HIV is projected to peak at 44.4 million by 2039 before decreasing to 43.4 million by 2050. Alarmingly, more than a million people still contract the virus annually, and HIV remains a leading cause of mortality in many countries. Of the estimated 40 million people living with HIV, only about 75% are receiving treatment.
Achieving the Sustainable Development Goal of ending HIV as a public health threat by 2030 requires evaluating current trends and strengthening global efforts, the authors emphasized. Their analysis, covering 204 countries and territories, projects HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality trends up to 2050 to guide sustainable response planning.
The decline in HIV incidence globally is largely driven by progress in sub-Saharan Africa, where the lifetime risk of acquiring HIV has fallen by 60% since 1995. Conversely, central and eastern Europe and central Asia have seen alarming increases, with lifetime acquisition risk rising by 586% and the population living with unsuppressed virus levels growing by 116% between 2003 and 2021.
The researchers employed the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) framework to analyze data from 1990 to 2021, incorporating various sources such as UNAIDS reports, household surveys, and vital registration data. They also introduced new metrics, including the prevalence of unsuppressed viraemia (PUV) and lifetime probability of HIV acquisition, to provide deeper insights into the global HIV burden.
The study underscores the importance of expanding initiatives like the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and scaling up global prevention and treatment programs. The authors recommend urgent action to reinvigorate the global HIV response and sustain progress toward reducing the disease’s impact.
