Humanity has already reached the threshold of overshooting the 1.5 °C global-heating target set by the Paris Climate Agreement, and unless a sharp course-correction is made, the consequences “will be devastating”, said António Guterres, secretary-general of the United Nations (UN), in a wide-ranging interview ahead of the upcoming COP30 climate summit in Brazil.
Guterres made it clear that the long-held goal of holding temperature rise to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels is now effectively out of reach — meaning the world must brace for effects that many scientists had hoped to avoid. “The truth is that we have failed to avoid an overshooting above 1.5 °C in the next few years,” he told the interviewers — warning of “tipping points” in the Amazon rainforest, the Arctic, the oceans and Antarctica.
Despite the inevitability of a breach of the 1.5 °C ceiling, the UN chief emphasised that efforts to curb emissions remain essential. The goal now, he said, must be to minimise the duration and magnitude of the overshoot, because that will determine how high the risks climb and how soon the world might recover. He pointed out that the current set of commitments under the Paris Agreement — the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted by countries — point only to around a 10 % reduction in emissions, whereas about a 60 % cut would be required to keep warming at or below 1.5 °C.
Guterres drew attention to the urgency of accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels, saying “it is clear that the era of fossil fuels is coming to an end.” He argued that the ongoing renewables revolution confirms that many fossil reserves already discovered cannot—and should not—be burned if the world is serious about its climate goals.
Beyond emissions, the UN secretary-general said a major fault line in the global climate governance system is the under-representation of Indigenous communities and civil society at key forums. He stressed that these groups are the best guardians of nature and must have far greater influence at climate talks — including COP30 — than corporate lobbyists.
As COP30 convenes in the Brazilian Amazon city of Belém, Guterres urged governments and other stakeholders to “change course” and act with urgency. He warned that if nations remain complacent or delay further, the planet could cross multiple dangerous tipping points — meaning fundamental changes in ecosystems that could accelerate warming and devastate communities.
Although he acknowledged that returning global temperatures towards 1.5 °C later in the century remains theoretically possible, achieving that would require an immediate dramatic drop in global greenhouse-gas emissions and a sustained commitment to climate-friendly policies. He said: “We need to make sure the overshoot is as short as possible and as low in intensity as possible.”
Given that his term as UN secretary-general ends next year, Guterres reflected on his legacy and reiterated that climate action is now his top priority: “I will never give up on my commitment to climate action, … to the protection of nature.”
For India and other countries like it, the message is clear: the window to avoid the worst-case outcomes is closing fast. Delayed or inadequate mitigation efforts will not just make achieving long-term goals harder—they will make the consequences more severe, longer-lasting and more difficult to reverse. As the global community prepares for COP30, the choices made in the next weeks and months may well determine the planet’s climate trajectory for decades to come.
