India’s agricultural and farm sector is staring at a potential crisis as disruptions in global fuel supplies, triggered by escalating tensions in West Asia, begin to ripple through fertiliser availability and farm operations, raising concerns about food security ahead of the crucial kharif season.
The unfolding situation stems from the ongoing conflict involving Iran, which has led to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — a vital global shipping route for oil, gas and fertiliser materials. The blockade has significantly impacted supply chains, pushing up prices and constraining the availability of key agricultural inputs.
India, one of the world’s largest consumers of fertilisers, is particularly vulnerable due to its dependence on imports from Gulf nations. Fertilisers such as urea, essential for crop production, are either imported directly or produced domestically using natural gas sourced from the region. With gas supplies tightening and shipments delayed, the cost and availability of these inputs are under pressure.
Early signs of stress are already visible on the ground. Farmers in key agricultural states, including Punjab and Haryana, have begun stockpiling fertilisers in anticipation of shortages, even though the immediate impact on crop cycles has not yet materialised. The kharif sowing season, which begins in June, depends heavily on timely fertiliser availability, leaving a narrow window for corrective measures.
The crisis extends beyond fertilisers. Rising fuel prices and potential shortages of diesel and petrol threaten to disrupt the entire agricultural value chain — from irrigation and harvesting to transportation and storage. Farm machinery and logistics systems in India are heavily dependent on fossil fuels, making the sector highly sensitive to energy shocks.
Experts warn that the combined impact of higher input costs and uncertain supply could reduce crop yields and farmer incomes. There are also fears that if fertiliser use declines due to high prices or scarcity, it could directly affect productivity, particularly for staple crops such as rice, which is largely grown during the kharif season.
Despite the growing anxiety among farmers, government officials have maintained that fertiliser stocks are adequate and that contingency plans are being put in place. Authorities have indicated that India is exploring alternative sourcing options beyond traditional Gulf suppliers to stabilise supplies.
However, the reassurance has done little to calm fears on the ground. Retailers and agricultural experts point to rising costs and supply uncertainties as warning signs of a deeper crisis. Past experiences of fertiliser shortages have made farmers wary, prompting early purchases and hoarding behaviour.
The situation is not limited to India. Countries across South Asia, including Sri Lanka, are also witnessing similar concerns, with some farmers reportedly reconsidering sowing decisions due to escalating costs and unreliable supplies.
Global agencies have warned that prolonged disruption in fertiliser and fuel supplies could have severe consequences for food production. Estimates suggest that millions could be pushed into food insecurity if the crisis persists, underscoring the interconnected nature of energy, agriculture and food systems.
As geopolitical tensions continue to affect critical supply routes, India’s farm sector finds itself exposed to global shocks, highlighting the urgent need for diversification of supply chains and greater resilience in agricultural inputs.
