India’s ambitious metro rail expansion, seen as a cornerstone of urban mobility reform over the past decade, is facing a major challenge as many networks across the country continue to witness ridership far below projections, raising concerns over affordability, planning and integration.
Mumbai’s Aqua Line, the city’s newest fully underground metro corridor connecting Cuffe Parade to Bandra-Kurla Complex (BKC) and airport terminals, has emerged as one such example. Opened last year and projected to carry nearly 1.5 million commuters daily, the 33.5-km corridor is reportedly operating at nearly one-tenth of that estimate, according to various assessments.
Despite being designed to reduce congestion in the financial capital, passenger numbers have remained subdued, with commuters and experts pointing to high fares, inadequate frequency and weak last-mile connectivity as major deterrents.
The situation reflects a wider trend across India’s rapidly growing metro ecosystem. Since 2014, the Centre has invested over $26 billion in expanding metro connectivity across nearly two dozen cities. India’s metro network has grown fourfold from under 300 km to more than 1,000 km by 2025, while average daily ridership has risen from around three million to over 11 million over the last decade.
However, experts say these broad numbers conceal a troubling reality — many metro systems have failed to achieve even a fraction of the passenger demand projected during the planning stage.
A 2023 report by the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi found actual ridership on many corridors was only 25-35% of projected figures. Similar findings have emerged from other studies. In some smaller cities, the gap is even starker. Estimates cited by policy institutions show ridership in cities such as Kanpur has been as low as 2% of projections, while Chennai’s first phase reportedly reached only around 37%.
Even in western Indian cities like Pune and Nagpur, actual usage has hovered between 20% and 50% of estimates. Delhi remains among the few exceptions where ridership has reportedly exceeded projections, although experts argue counting interchanges as separate trips has inflated those figures.
Transport specialists attribute the shortfall to a combination of overestimated demand forecasts, incomplete service delivery and pricing concerns.
Experts note ridership calculations are often based on theoretical offered capacity, assuming train frequencies and coach numbers that do not fully materialise. In many cities, trains run less frequently than global benchmarks and often operate with fewer coaches, limiting efficiency and convenience.
Affordability has also emerged as a major issue. In several Indian metros, integrated commuting costs, including feeder transport, can take up a significant share of earnings for low-income workers. Analysts say efforts to reduce subsidies have made metro travel less attractive in a price-sensitive country where cheaper suburban rail and buses remain alternatives.
The issue came into focus after fare hikes in Bengaluru reportedly led to a decline in ridership, reinforcing concerns that pricing can directly impact usage.
Beyond fares, poor network planning and weak last-mile connectivity continue to hamper adoption. Experts say inadequate feeder bus services, long interchange times and fragmented management between metro and bus operators often make journeys cumbersome.
Commuters in several cities also cite poor pedestrian access around stations, limited infrastructure for seamless transfers and safety concerns, particularly for women travelling at night.
Urban mobility researchers say such factors often make metro travel less practical despite overcrowded roads and stressed public transport systems, undermining the shift away from private vehicles.
At the same time, growing congestion, pollution, parking shortages and road safety concerns are expected to sustain long-term demand for mass transit. Experts believe metro use could rise gradually, but a sharp jump in adoption may remain unlikely unless systems address core structural issues.
While India continues to build metro corridors at a rapid pace, experts warn infrastructure expansion alone may not guarantee success unless supported by commuter-centric planning.
Without cheaper fares, seamless connectivity and stronger operational integration, they say many metro systems risk remaining useful but underperforming assets, falling short of the transformative urban mobility solution they were intended to be.
