According to the latest publicly available data from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Indians made up just 2% of the total undocumented immigrant population in the U.S., with their absolute numbers declining from 560,000 in 2015 to 220,000 in 2022. While official figures for 2023 are unavailable, this decline suggests that the proportion of unauthorized Indian immigrants relative to the overall Indian population in the U.S. dropped from 16.6% in 2015 to 6.9% in 2022.
However, despite a decrease in the overall number of undocumented Indian migrants, recent years have seen a surge in their arrivals. Illegal border apprehensions of Indians rose sharply from 1,000 in 2020 to 43,000 in 2023. Similarly, asylum applications from Indian nationals increased tenfold, from 5,000 in 2021 to 51,000 in 2023. While illegal Indian migrants previously entered primarily through the U.S.-Mexico border, a growing number are now crossing from Canada. Punjabi speakers form the largest segment of this group.
These findings are from a new study by political scientist Devesh Kapur and PhD scholar Abby Budiman, published by Johns Hopkins University. The report challenges the perception of an outright spike in illegal Indian immigration, highlighting the complexity of the issue. It also comes amid political debates in India over deportations during Donald Trump’s presidency and ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington, where immigration is expected to be a topic of discussion.
The study emphasizes that DHS’s Office of Homeland Security Statistics is the primary source of official data on illegal immigrants. However, three other organizations—Pew Research Center, Center for Migration Studies (CMS), and the Migration Policy Institute—also provide estimates deemed credible by the U.S. government.
Since 2019, a significant gap has emerged between DHS data and figures from non-government sources. For 2022, while DHS estimated 220,000 undocumented Indian immigrants, Pew and CMS put the number at 700,000. The authors question the credibility of the higher estimates, noting that if Pew and CMS figures were accurate, nearly one in four Indian immigrants in the U.S. would be undocumented—a highly improbable scenario.
DHS data shows that the number of undocumented Indian immigrants rose from 28,000 in 1990 to 120,000 in 2000, 270,000 in 2010, and peaked at 560,000 in 2016 before falling to 220,000 in 2022. The agency’s 2022 estimate suggests that about 7% of all foreign-born Indians in the U.S. were unauthorized, down from 17% in 2015 and 9% in 2000. Indians accounted for just 2% of the total undocumented population in 2022, a decline from 4% in 2015, despite making up 7% of the U.S. foreign-born population. Even with the 2023 border surge, this proportion is unlikely to have changed significantly.
The states with the highest numbers of undocumented Indian immigrants align with those hosting the largest legal Indian communities—California, Texas, New Jersey, New York, and Illinois. However, in states like Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, Indians constitute over 10% of the total unauthorized population. Additionally, in Tennessee, Indiana, Georgia, Wisconsin, and California, more than 25% of the Indian population is undocumented.
Politically, the issue gains significance as the share of illegal Indian immigrants is disproportionately high in key swing states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Wisconsin—as well as in Republican strongholds like Tennessee and Indiana. Although these individuals do not vote, their presence may have contributed to political backlash over immigration policies.
Despite the long-term decline, Kapur and Budiman highlight a recent spike in illegal migration. Border apprehensions of Indians soared from 1,000 in 2020 to 43,000 in 2023 before slightly declining to 40,000 in 2024. Additionally, the traditional route through the southwest border (California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas) has shifted, with 36% of Indian border apprehensions in 2024 occurring along the U.S.-Canada border.
The U.S. system allows migrants to apply for asylum if they claim to fear persecution. This has led to a sharp rise in asylum requests from Indian nationals, increasing from 5,000 in 2020 to 51,000 in 2023. A similar trend is visible in Indian asylum applications in Canada, the UK, and Australia.
Punjabi speakers make up the largest share of Indian asylum applicants, accounting for 66% of cases between 2001 and 2022. Other common languages among asylum seekers include Hindi (14%), English (8%), and Gujarati (7%). Punjabi-speaking applicants also had the highest approval rates (63%), compared to 58% for Hindi speakers and 25% for Gujarati speakers.
The study suggests that most Indian asylum seekers are economic migrants rather than individuals fleeing persecution. The authors argue that the financial costs of reaching the U.S.—either via a dangerous journey through Latin America or as “fake” international students in Canada—are 30 to 50 times India’s per capita income, making it largely inaccessible to the most marginalized communities. Even illegal migration, they note, requires significant financial resources.
