Ebrahim Raisi, once near the top of power in the Islamic Republic and expected to rise further, met a different fate when he died in a helicopter crash on Sunday. This unexpected event of helicopter crash has disrupted speculation over who will succeed the 85-year-old Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose health has been a long-standing concern. Despite Raisi’s death, it is not anticipated to significantly alter Iranian policy or destabilize the Islamic Republic. However, it will challenge a system dominated by conservative hardliners in all branches of power.
Dr. Sanam Vakil of Chatham House notes that the system will make a show of adherence to constitutional procedures while seeking a new conservative leader loyal to Khamenei. Raisi’s opponents, recalling his controversial role in the mass execution of political prisoners in the 1980s, may view his death as a potential turning point. For the ruling conservatives, his state funeral will be both an emotional event and an opportunity to signal continuity.
Professor Mohammed Marandi of Tehran University argues that Iran has defied Western predictions of collapse for over 40 years and will continue to do so. Another critical role to fill is Raisi’s seat on the Assembly of Experts, the body that will choose the next supreme leader. Raisi was seen as a potential successor due to his youth, loyalty, and ideological commitment, similar to Khamenei at the time of his ascension.
With Raisi’s death, Vice-President Mohammad Mokhber has taken over, and new presidential elections must be held within 50 days. This comes after a parliamentary election with a record low turnout and a presidential election in 2021 marked by the exclusion of moderate and pro-reform candidates. Mohammad Ali Shabani of Amwaj.media suggests early elections could re-engage voters, but there is no indication the state will take such a step.
Within Raisi’s ranks, there is no clear successor. Hamidreza Azizi of SWP notes that different conservative factions will now compete for power. The president’s role is limited, as ultimate authority rests with the Supreme Leader and the IRGC, which controls foreign policy. Raisi faced unprecedented tensions with Israel and economic hardship due to international sanctions. His presidency also saw protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, which targeted the Supreme Leader and the system.
Raisi’s election had the lowest turnout in Iranian history, lacking the popular mandate of his predecessor Rouhani, whose initial popularity stemmed from the 2015 nuclear deal. Indirect talks with the Biden administration made little progress. Raisi avoided much of the ire directed at Rouhani, being seen as less influential.
The helicopter crash also killed Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who played a key role in diplomacy, particularly around the Israel-Gaza war. Despite the significant event of the president’s death, analyst Esfandyar Batmanghelidj argues that Raisi’s lack of political support and vision means that political operators will adapt and move forward without him.
