The ongoing conflict involving Iran could trigger severe food shortages across Africa, as disruptions to global fertiliser supplies intensify and prices surge, the head of the world’s largest fertiliser producer has warned.
Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Yara International, cautioned that the crisis is pushing the world towards what he described as a “global auction” for fertilisers, where wealthier nations may outbid poorer countries for limited supplies. This scenario, he suggested, could leave many African nations—already heavily dependent on imports—unable to secure the inputs needed to sustain agricultural production.
The warning comes as the war continues to disrupt critical supply chains, particularly in the Middle East, a key hub for fertiliser production. The conflict has affected the availability of essential components such as ammonia and urea, with some producers forced to halt operations due to safety concerns and logistical risks linked to the war.
Prices have reacted sharply to the supply squeeze. Urea, a widely used nitrogen fertiliser, has reportedly seen a dramatic increase of between 60% and 70% since the conflict escalated. These rising costs are placing significant strain on farmers globally, but the impact is expected to be most severe in regions like sub-Saharan Africa, where agricultural systems are already fragile and financial buffers are limited.
Many African economies rely heavily on fertiliser imports from Gulf countries, making them particularly vulnerable to disruptions in shipping routes and production. The situation is compounded by broader geopolitical tensions that have affected maritime trade, especially through strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, through which a substantial portion of global fertiliser exports typically passes.
Holsether emphasised that while European farmers are receiving subsidies to cushion the blow of rising input costs, similar support mechanisms are largely absent in Africa. This disparity risks widening global inequalities in food production capacity, potentially leaving millions exposed to higher food prices and shortages.
Experts warn that reduced fertiliser usage—driven by high costs or limited availability—could lead to lower crop yields in upcoming planting seasons. This, in turn, may push food prices higher and deepen food insecurity in vulnerable regions. Developing countries, where food already accounts for a significant share of household spending, are expected to bear the brunt of the crisis.
Holsether urged global leaders to act swiftly to stabilise fertiliser markets and ensure equitable distribution, warning that failure to do so could result in a full-scale food crisis. The situation, he indicated, is not yet irreversible but requires urgent intervention to prevent long-term damage to global food systems, particularly in Africa where resilience to such shocks remains limited.
