The number of irregular migrants residing in the UK and other major European countries has remained stable for several years, despite intense political rhetoric about an alleged migrant influx, according to new research findings.
Migration experts from 18 leading universities and research organizations, including the University of Oxford, have launched a public database as part of the MIrreM project, which tracks irregular migration. While acknowledging the challenges in obtaining precise data due to many individuals living undetected to avoid immigration enforcement, researchers believe their methodology offers more accurate estimates than previous studies.
The findings indicate that between 2.6 and 3.2 million irregular migrants lived across 12 European countries, including the UK, between 2016 and 2023. This group constitutes less than 1% of the total population in these countries, and the overall number of irregular migrants has not significantly changed since 2008. For the UK, the estimated number of irregular migrants, including asylum seekers, trafficking victims, and undocumented individuals, ranges between 594,000 and 745,000.
The new database revises earlier estimates provided by projects like Clandestino in 2008 and the Pew Research Center in 2019, offering updated insights amid notable shifts in the European migration landscape. Irregular migration has been a contentious issue in recent elections across the UK and Europe, with politicians vowing to curb immigration in response to public concerns over clandestine entries, such as those via small boats or hidden compartments in vehicles. However, the new data challenges such narratives.
The MIrreM project’s findings suggest that the estimated irregular migrant population in 12 European countries has not changed substantially compared to the 2008 Clandestino report, which placed the figure between 1.8 million and 3.8 million. The MIrreM report raises the lower estimate by 780,000 but reduces the upper estimate by 460,000, providing a clearer picture of the irregular migrant population in these nations.
Among the 12 countries studied, the United States had the highest number of irregular migrants, while Finland had the lowest. Compared to 2008, Austria, Germany, and Spain saw an increase in irregular migrants, while the numbers remained stable in Belgium, France, Italy, the UK, and the US. Conversely, Finland, Greece, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Poland experienced a decline.
Michele LeVoy, director of the Platform for International Cooperation on Undocumented Migrants, emphasized that this data could aid in creating policies for this often overlooked population. “Estimates of the number of people living in irregular situations in Europe should inform inclusive policies that provide access to public services and pathways to regularization. Undocumented individuals are already integrated into our societies, and it’s time Europe acknowledged this.”
Louise Calvey, director of the charity Asylum Matters, welcomed the findings. “The so-called ‘migration crisis’ is a narrative constructed by ineffective governments and political leaders,” she stated. “This report should guide the Labour government’s approach to asylum and migration—advocating for a fair and safe migration system that treats people with dignity and respect and ends the punitive measures against those seeking safety.”
The report comes as recent Home Office figures show a total of 973 migrants crossing the Channel to the UK in 17 small boats on Saturday, marking the busiest day of the year so far. This brings the total number of arrivals in 2024 to 26,612, compared to 25,330 at this point last year and 33,611 in 2022, with 1,368 people making the journey over the weekend alone.
