Humanity could face extinction by the end of this century due to nuclear conflict and the malicious use of artificial intelligence (AI), according to a new global assessment published by The Lancet. The report has identified 17 major threats to human health and wellbeing over the next 75 years, warning that their combined impact could have devastating consequences if governments fail to take timely action.
The assessment, prepared by the newly established Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health, highlights nuclear war and the deliberate misuse of AI, including for developing biological weapons, as the two threats with the potential to wipe out humanity. Although the likelihood of such catastrophic events remains low, experts have warned that their consequences could be irreversible.
The commission comprises 35 experts who examined a wide range of threats and assessed their potential effects on global health. The researchers used disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a measure that calculates healthy years of life lost due to illness, disability or premature death, to estimate the possible impact of different risks.
According to the assessment, nuclear conflict could cause destruction on a massive scale, extending far beyond the countries directly involved. A nuclear war could release enormous quantities of soot and other particles into the upper atmosphere, blocking sunlight, disrupting agricultural production and triggering widespread food shortages. The resulting nuclear famine, combined with the direct effects of explosions and radiation, could threaten populations across the world.
The report also raises concerns about the potential misuse of advanced AI technologies. Experts warn that these systems could be exploited to develop biological weapons or create pathogens capable of causing devastating outbreaks. The growing integration of AI into critical infrastructure and other sensitive systems could also create risks if the technology malfunctions or is deliberately manipulated.
The commission stressed that the dangers associated with AI and nuclear weapons should not be considered in isolation. Their potential consequences could interact with existing global vulnerabilities, including weak health systems, food insecurity and geopolitical instability. An accompanying editorial in The Lancet warned that the scale of destruction from either threat could be catastrophic for humanity.
Beyond these two existential risks, the assessment identifies climate change, air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition and naturally occurring pandemics among the major threats facing the world. Conventional armed conflicts, declining international development assistance, income inequality, inadequate educational opportunities and poor mental health have also been included.
Other concerns highlighted by the researchers include obesity, high blood pressure, smoking, excessive alcohol consumption and unhealthy ageing. These conditions already contribute substantially to the global disease burden and could continue to undermine health outcomes in the coming decades.
The report warns that the threats are interconnected and could intensify one another. Climate change, for instance, could increase food insecurity and worsen health inequalities, while disruptions to international assistance could weaken healthcare services in countries that depend heavily on external funding.
The commission estimated that a substantial reduction or collapse in international health assistance could result in the loss of up to 1.5 billion disability-adjusted life years by 2100, with nearly 70% of the projected burden occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. Childhood malnutrition is also expected to remain a major concern in vulnerable regions.
The researchers emphasised that the assessment is not intended to predict an inevitable global catastrophe. Instead, it seeks to identify risks that policymakers can address through prevention, preparedness and coordinated action. Christopher Murray, co-chair of the commission and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, said decisions taken by current leaders would shape the health and wellbeing of future generations.
Ibrahim Abubakar, a commission member and professor of infectious disease epidemiology at University College London, said the exercise was designed to help policymakers understand the scale of potential threats and identify areas where intervention could make a difference. The report also highlights the benefits of decisive climate action.
Limiting global warming to around 1.8 degrees Celsius, rather than allowing temperatures to rise to 4.4 degrees Celsius, could prevent an estimated 1.89 billion years of healthy life from being lost, according to the assessment’s modelling. The findings are scheduled to be presented at the World Health Summit in Berlin. The commission plans to update its assessment annually to account for emerging threats, new evidence and changing global circumstances.
The experts have urged governments to invest in stronger health systems, technological innovation and early-warning mechanisms to identify and manage risks before they develop into major crises. They also called for greater attention to prevention and preparedness, stressing that coordinated action could reduce the impact of even the most serious threats.
While the possibility of human extinction remains uncertain, the commission’s central message is that the future is not predetermined. Decisions made today on nuclear security, AI governance, climate action and public health could significantly influence humanity’s ability to navigate the challenges of the 21st century.
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