Pakistan is facing an escalating water crisis, largely due to the ongoing suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with India. Signed in 1960, the treaty had for decades governed the distribution of the Indus River system’s waters between the two countries. However, India unilaterally halted the agreement following a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, earlier this year. The attack, which claimed 25 Indian lives, prompted India to suspend data sharing on river flows and discontinue annual meetings between the Indus Waters Commissioners of both nations. This move has severely disrupted the decades-long cooperative framework that had ensured equitable access to shared river waters.
The consequences of the treaty’s suspension are becoming increasingly visible across Pakistan, particularly in the agriculturally critical Punjab province. According to the Indus River System Authority (IRSA), river water availability in Punjab has dropped to 128,800 cusecs as of June 2—down by 14,800 cusecs compared to the same time last year. The Chenab River, a vital source of irrigation for the region, has seen a notable reduction in inflows at the Marala headworks, believed to be a result of India restricting upstream water flow. The sharp decline in water supply is expected to severely impact the early kharif crop sowing season, heightening the risk of food insecurity.
Adding to the crisis is the alarmingly low water level in Pakistan’s key reservoirs. The Mangla Dam on the Jhelum River is currently operating at less than half its capacity, while the Tarbela Dam on the Indus River is just marginally above 50%. These levels are far from sufficient to support the irrigation demands of summer crops, which are crucial for the country’s food production and economy. Agriculture constitutes around 23% of Pakistan’s GDP and employs a significant portion of the population. With nearly 80% of the country’s arable land dependent on water from the Indus basin, the ongoing shortage could lead to decreased crop yields, rising food prices, and increased socio-economic stress.
The political stakes surrounding the issue are equally high. Pakistan’s Army Chief General Asim Munir has called water a national “red line” and asserted that the country will not compromise on the fundamental rights of its 240 million citizens. Islamabad has described India’s suspension of the treaty as an “act of war,” reflecting the gravity of the situation and the strategic importance of shared water resources in South Asia. The crisis comes at a time when Pakistan is already dealing with economic turmoil, high inflation, and political instability.
Amid growing concerns, experts are urging both India and Pakistan to resume diplomatic dialogue and find a sustainable resolution. The suspension of the IWT not only jeopardizes Pakistan’s agricultural output and food security but also sets a dangerous precedent for international water-sharing agreements. With the monsoon season approaching, timely action and renewed cooperation are essential to avert a full-blown humanitarian and environmental disaster in the region.
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