Pakistan’s top water regulatory authority has warned that the country’s two main reservoirs are facing significant shortage, reducing water availability for crops by up to 35% this season.
This warning comes at a crucial time as wheat, a staple crop, enters its peak growth phase, requiring more water to maximize yield. On Friday, the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) cautioned Punjab and Sindh—the country’s primary agricultural hubs—to prepare for a potential 30-35% water shortfall in the final stage of the current crop season. Both Tarbela and Mangla dams are nearing their dead levels, exacerbating the crisis.
According to media, IRSA notified provincial irrigation departments that both reservoirs are close to depletion. “There is a likelihood that Punjab and Sindh may face a 30-35% shortfall while operating reservoirs at or around dead levels,” stated IRSA’s Director of Regulation, Khalid Idrees Rana.
As per IRSA’s latest figures, Tarbela Dam holds just 73,000 acre-feet of water, with its level recorded at 1,409 feet—only nine feet above its dead level of 1,400 feet. The dam, which can store up to 1,550 feet, was receiving an inflow of 17,000 cusecs against an outflow of 20,000 cusecs. Meanwhile, Mangla Dam had a live storage of 235,000 acre-feet, with its level at 1,088 feet—just 28 feet above its dead level of 1,060 feet. With a maximum storage capacity of 1,242 feet, Mangla was receiving 16,400 cusecs and releasing 18,000 cusecs. These figures indicate that both reservoirs are depleting rapidly.
IRSA reiterated that based on daily discharge data, Tarbela and Mangla could reach dead levels within days. This was predicted at the start of the Rabi season on October 2, 2024, when IRSA estimated that storage would hit dead levels in the first 10 days of March 2025. While such depletion is a recurring phenomenon and can happen twice a year, it comes at a critical time for wheat crops, which have already suffered from lower-than-expected sowing due to shifting government policies. The crop is now at its final watering stage and is expected to be ready for harvest by the end of March.
However, IRSA noted that recent rains have provided some relief. “Fortunately, the recent rain spell has positively impacted the Indus Basin Irrigation System, allowing water supplies to meet near-projected demands, as accounted for in the Water Accounts Report,” it stated.
Agriculture remains Pakistan’s largest economic sector, contributing around 24% to the GDP and employing nearly half the workforce, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. It also plays a key role in foreign exchange earnings and sustains both rural and urban populations, with a vast majority of the country directly or indirectly reliant on it.
