China’s population declined for the third consecutive year in 2024, dropping by 1.39 million to 1.408 billion, highlighting ongoing demographic challenges such as an ageing population and a shrinking workforce. This trend mirrors those in East Asia, where countries like Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong also face plummeting birth rates.
The decline is attributed to rising living costs, delaying or discouraging marriage and childbearing as young people prioritize education and careers. Despite longer life expectancy, the birth rate is not sufficient to offset population decline. Countries with limited immigration, like China, are particularly vulnerable.
Historically, China has maintained a large population despite adversities. Following World War II and the rise of the Communist Party, the population doubled within 30 years. However, concerns over food scarcity led to the implementation of the “one-child policy,” which, while not a formal law, enforced strict birth controls, including forced abortions and heavy fines for violators.
The policy, especially in rural areas with a strong preference for male children, led to a significant gender imbalance. Current reports show a sex ratio of 104.34 men to 100 women, though some estimates suggest a higher disparity, raising concerns about social stability among China’s many bachelors.
The falling birth rate has resulted in a rapidly ageing population and a reduced workforce, threatening the economy and social security system. Over 22% of the population is now aged 60 or older, and this figure is expected to exceed 30% by 2035, prompting discussions on raising the retirement age. Some schools and kindergartens are being converted into care facilities for the elderly.
Despite government incentives such as cash payouts and housing subsidies for families with up to three children, the effects have been short-lived. The shift towards urbanization continues, with 10 million more people moving to cities, increasing the urbanization rate to 67%.
China, now the world’s second-largest economy, faces significant challenges as it attempts to balance economic growth with an ageing population, potentially “growing old before it grows rich.”
