A major new analysis by the Ember climate think‑tank, published 31 July 2025, reveals that despite the ambitious commitments made during COP28 in Dubai, the overwhelming majority of countries have failed to act on the pledge to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030.
Ember’s report shows that only 22 countries—mostly European Union members—have actually increased their national targets since signing the pledge in 2023. As a result, the world’s combined commitments today amount to barely a 2 percent increase over the baseline at the time of COP28. This stagnation leaves pledged capacity reaching just 7.4 terawatts (TW) by 2030—well short of the 11 TW goal deemed necessary to stay aligned with limiting warming to 1.5 °C.
Key emitters such as the United States, China and Russia—together responsible for nearly half of global carbon emissions—have not brought forward any new renewable energy targets and are not expected to do so in the near future. Outside Europe, a handful of countries have raised ambitions: Vietnam by 86 GW; Australia by 18 GW; Brazil by 15 GW; the UK by 7 GW; and South Korea by 9 GW. India already aligns with the COP28 pledge through its 500 GW target but has not upgraded its commitment further.
At the time the pledge was launched, nearly 200 nations endorsed the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge, with signatories explicitly committing to tripling installed renewables to at least 11,000 GW and doubling annual energy‑efficiency improvements to over 4 percent by 2030. These ambitions were endorsed in the context of the UN’s first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement, which concluded that emissions must be cut 43 percent by 2030 from 2019 levels to keep the 1.5 °C warming threshold within reach.
Despite record clean‑energy deployment in 2024, as highlighted in a REN21 report published in June 2025, progress remains insufficient. That year saw 740 GW of renewables added globally—led by solar PV, which accounted for 81 percent of new capacity. Still, REN21 projects a persistent shortfall of 6.2 TW relative to the COP28 target. The report warns that without coherent policies, coordinated planning, and robust infrastructure investments, capacity growth is unlikely to accelerate at the pace required.
Experts emphasize that the COP28 pledge must translate into concrete national policies, not just symbolic commitments. Ember and others point to urgent needs for regulatory reforms, financial alignment, and long‑term planning that reflects the scale and immediacy of the climate crisis. Without widespread updates to Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the global community is at risk of veering off track toward the 1.5 °C limit.
This report serves as a stark reminder: pledges alone are not enough. Deepening ambition and accelerating implementation across major emitters—including China, India, the U.S. and Russia—is essential to closing the gap. Failing that, humanity’s ability to avoid the worst consequences of climate breakdown is imperiled—and the COP28 vision may prove far beyond reach.
