The United States is witnessing a striking decline in international student arrivals, with figures indicating a nearly 50 percent fall in incoming students from India—a trend raising red flags for universities and policymakers alike.
Preliminary data from the U.S. International Trade Administration shows that the number of international students arriving on visas during July 2025 dropped sharply by around 28.5 percent compared to July 2024, falling from 106,993 to just 76,519 arrivals. Particularly stark was the decline among Indian students, whose numbers plunged from 24,298 in July 2024 to 13,027 in July 2025—a staggering 46.4 percent year-on-year fall.
These figures reflect a broader pattern: Forbes reports that nearly half of Indian new student arrivals vanished in July, signaling a significant contraction in fall 2025 enrollment prospects for U.S. colleges. Additional estimates indicate that U.S. universities may face a 30 to 40 percent decline in new international student enrollment this fall, translating to approximately 150,000 fewer students compared to the previous year.
For American institutions—many of which rely heavily on international enrollment to bolster tuition revenue—this drop is more than a numbers game. A projected decline on this scale could cost universities around $7 billion in revenue and threaten over 60,000 jobs tied to higher education and associated industries. Another analysis suggests potential losses of $2.6 billion in tuition revenue alone, especially from key markets such as India and China.
Visa denials and administrative bottlenecks appear to be at the heart of the crisis. Between October 2023 and September 2024, the U.S. denied 41 percent of F-1 visa applications—the highest rate in a decade. In addition, reports highlight frozen appointment slots and visa interview backlogs that left many hopeful students unable to even begin the process.
Experts, universities, and education consultants have voiced concern over these trends. In Hyderabad, some consultants warn of a potential 70 to 80 percent plunge in Indian student arrivals for the upcoming fall term. NAFSA, the Association of International Educators, projects potential enrollment falls of up to 40 percent—a forecast that would reshape not just academic calendars, but institutional finances and campus life.
Beyond fiscal implications, the shift also has broader geopolitical and educational repercussions. India, once the leading source of new international students to the U.S., is experiencing a dramatic reversal in trend. In 2024–25, more than 330,000 Indian students were enrolled in American institutions; some of that momentum may now shift to other global education hubs.
In summary, this year’s admissions season is shaping up to be one of the most turbulent in recent memory. Visa denials, appointment freezes, and policy-driven uncertainty are converging to dramatically reduce the flow of Indian and other international students to the U.S. The consequences extend far beyond academia—from economic shocks to a potentially diminished role for the U.S. as a premier destination for global scholarship.
